MOST IMPROVED PLAYER

Jared’s Picks

  1. De’Aaron Fox
  2. Pascal Siakam
  3. John Collins

What a difference a year can make for an NBA rookie.

Just last year it wasn’t clear if De’Aaron Fox was the best point guard in his class. This year, Fox is emerging as one of the better point guards in the NBA.

What is better quantity or quality? How about both. Fox is scoring more this year, 17.4 points vs 11.6 points, and doing it more efficiently – shooting 46.2% from the field and 36.2% from three. On top of that, he’s dishing out 7.2 assists and 1.7 steals per game, top ten in both categories in the NBA this season. These are numbers that literally put him in a class of his own amongst all players in the NBA this season (per basketball-reference).

The turnaround by Fox has led the Kings to playoff contention, with a record of 26-25. No one expected this from a team that won just 27 games last season. By handing the reigns to Fox this year, the Kings have gone from last in the league in pace to second. In terms of personal improvement and team turnaround, De’Aaron Fox deserves this award.

Discovered by Luc Mbah a Moute at local basketball camp in Cameroon, Pascal Siakam came over the United States at the age of 16 years old. He played two years of college at New Mexico State before getting selected by the Raptors with the 27th pick in the 2016 NBA draft. Siakam’s first two years in the league were nondescript. Last year he became a solid role player, seeing eighty-one games of action while starting only five. Clearly a player in development, Siakam averaged 7.3 points in 20 minutes per game.

Seemingly overnight he is now a key cog to a Raptors team battling for an Eastern Conference title. Siakam has seen his stats balloon – averaging 15.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. He has also been the most consistent Raptor, playing the most games (52) and tying Danny Green with 51 games started. Siakam’s ability to play stretch four, next to Ibaka at the stretch five, has created one of the more athletic and versatile frontcourts in the NBA. Nick Nurse can, and does, trot Siakam out with every imaginable combination of players.

The most overlooked player in the 2017 NBA draft continues to be overshadowed, currently by his own teammate. Injured the first 14 games of this season, John Collins will have to remain healthy the rest of the way to stay eligible for this award. But boy does he do have a good chance to win if he does.

After averaging 10.5 points and 7.3 rebounds last year, Collins has transformed into a double-double machine putting up 19.3 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. More importantly, he is proving to be a viable stretch four. This year Collins is attempting 2.4 3PA per game, compared to 0.6 3PA last year, and knocking down 40% of them. Proving his stats aren’t without bearing, the Hawks are 4-12 this season without Collins on the floor and 11-19 with him. If Collins keeps this up, he may prove himself the best power forward in the 2017 class by the end of the year.

Rob’s Picks

  1. Pascal Siakam
  2. Tobias Harris
  3. De’Aron Fox

The race for Most Improved Player is a touch more competitive than it was last year when Oladipo blew the lid off the league surprising everyone but perhaps Kevin Pritchard, GM of the Pacers.

However, the heavy favorite has got to be Pascal Siakam, who is currently averaging 15/7/3 on 56% shooting. His 3-point shot is passable but still has a ways to go (33%). He’s had an uptick in January, and his shooting stroke suggests it will come along as Coach Nurse pushes him to take more threes. As for defense, all the stats mentioned for the DPOY candidates, Siakam is only a notch below those top tier guys. And in some, like defensive field goal percentage vs expected, he’s even ahead of Embiid and Giannis with -6.4. His on/off numbers are even more startling – at +12.9, he even blows Kawhi Leonard out of the water (who currently has +4). Obviously, that doesn’t make Siakam a better player than Leonard, but a plus/minus that high clearly shows how important he is to the Raptors’ success this year.

Second place goes to a guy who is about to get PAID this offseason. Tobias Harris. While he has averaged 16-19 points per game before, his improvement has not just been in the scoring department (currently at 21 PPG). He’s been asked to carry a greater offensive load than ever (career high usage rate of 23%) and yet, also has the best TS% of his career at over 61%! Those are 2 stats that usually only correlate when a star player is leading your offense. Throw in 8 rebounds and nearly 3 assists per game and he is an easy choice for the ballot.

The final spot is tough. I try to shy away from second year players because you would naturally expect an improvement from them, especially those that were picked in the lottery, but I had to violate my own rule for De’Aron Fox, who is currently single-handedly leading the Kings back to NBA relevancy. After shooting 41% from the field and 31% from deep his rookie year, he is currently hitting a much more respectable 46% & 36% on nearly 3 more attempts per game. His blazing speed was something to behold his rookie year, but you can tell he has learned how to use it more effectively against NBA competition. Again, if it were one or two categories, I’d ignore him for this award. But he’s improved in rebounding, steals, blocks, net rating, and currently ranks 14th among all point guards in RPM this year after ranking 77th last year. The Kings are only a game and a half out of the playoffs. It might be a little black and white, but if they end up snagging the 8th seed, he should finish top 3 in this category.

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR

Jared’s Picks

  1. Derrick Rose
  2. Dennis Schroder
  3. Domantas Sabonis

The 30-year old Rose has been resurgent in Minnesota in a way few could have predicted. For the first time in his career, Rose has the role of bench scoring guard. A role that apparently best suits him in his post-MVP, injury riddled saga form.

The one-time MVP is having the most efficient season of his career. Shooting a career high 41.7% from three (previously 33.2%) has also led to a career high in true shooting percentage of 56.5%, compared to 55% in his MVP season. He’s also posting the best assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.81 vs 2.53 his rookie season.

Not to mention his single game career-high 50 points against the Jazz in October.

Accepting his role as a sixth man has taken pressure off Rose, and been invaluable supplementing Teague as a second ball handler. By his own comments, Rose has embraced the title.

“I would like winning Sixth Man of the Year,” Rose said before Saturday’s game. “I don’t think that’s anything bad to say or a bad goal with me coming off the bench. I want to be the best bench player. It’s just how I feel. If anything I think it’d help the team.”

If he keeps this up, Rose will get his wish.

In contrast with Rose, Dennis Schroder is not having his most efficient year. Schroder is shooting just 41.5% from the field, the lowest since his rookie year. His 50.6% true shooting percentage eked out by his 34.5% from three and 83% from the free throw line.

However, his impact to this Thunder team cannot be understated. Schroder’s presence takes pressure off Westbrook to be the primary ball handler. He also gives Donovan flexibility to split George and Westbrook up more often.

In limited sample sizes, Schroder co-exists with George in his best 5-, 4- and 3-man combinations in Net per 100 possessions (per basketball-reference)

LineupMinutesNet/100
5-manS. Adams | T. Ferguson | P. George | J. Grant | D. Schroder119:26+24.7
4-manT. Ferguson | P. George | J. Grant | D. Schroder143:41+20.3
3-manT. Ferguson | P. George | D. Schroder242:32+14.9

Despite his relatively low field goal percentage, Schroder’s on the court impact has been key for a Thunder team which currently ranks 3rd in the Western Conference. Down the stretch of games, and during the playoffs, Schroder’s impact will only become more apparent.

Prior to this year, Sabonis was just the other guy the Pacers got in the Paul George trade. Victor Oladipo established himself as an All-Star last year in his 5th season in the NBA, perhaps overshadowing Sabonis. This year is a different story. Sabonis has been a key member of a Pacers team that sits 3rd in the Easter Conference.

Backing up both Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner, Sabonis has made the most of his 25 minutes per game, averaging 14.3 points,9.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. He’s doing it with efficiency, too, ranking 6th in field goal percentage (60.2%) and sixth in true shooting percentage (64.7%). Sabonis is establishing himself as an elite rebounder and efficient scoring big man.

Rob’s Picks

  1. Spencer Dinwiddie
  2. Domantas Sabonis
  3. Andre Iguodala

Tough break for Spencer Dinwiddie and the newly revived Nets, losing Spencer for four to six weeks  following a hand injury. Still, as these awards are given to who leads these awards as of this point in the season, the top spot belongs to Dinwiddie, who was averaging over 17 points and 5 assists per game on 46/36/80 splits. His ability to drive to the hoop is often what jumpstarts the Nets’ high-octane, pass-heavy offense. And while D’Angelo Russell has shined in his closer role these last few weeks, it is important to remember that the closer role originally belonged to Dinwiddie, and he too shined in that role, as the Pistons and a couple other teams can attest. He is shooting 39% from 3 in clutch situations and is 2nd in the league in total clutch points among bench players.

As you would expect, Indiana has struggled without Oladipo. And so has Sabonis. He has shot 12-32 (37.5%) in the games since Oladipo went down. If that continues, he will be off the ballot by end of season. However, that doesn’t change how he performed before the last 4 games. Sabonis has averaged 14/9/2 on 60% shooting. His defensive win share is almost exactly that of Kevin Durant. With Oladipo out, the Pacers will rely on his offense more. While the initial results have been less than ideal, he has a chance to take his offense to the next level. If the Pacers want to hold onto home court advantage in the first round, they’ll need it.

I’ll let Kerr take it from here…

“He’s like a starter for us,” Kerr said. “He’s played backup point guard. He’s currently our backup power forward. He guards the best player every single night — Kawhi Leonard, James Harden. He comes in and automatically guards the best guy. I think he leads the league in assist to turnover ratio [he does, at 4.58, well ahead of Chris Paul’s 3.86]. This guy, he’s phenomenal.

“But people are going to look at the stats and go, well, he’s averaging six, seven points, however many. Then they’re going to find someone who averages 17 and say: ‘I’m going to vote for that guy.’

“But those of you with votes, I’ll remind you that this game is about more than just scoring. There’s my push for Andre. He’ll probably cuss me out for it.”

Love it Steve! I was going to go with Montrezl Harrell with the last spot (currently averaging about 16 PPG), but Kerr successfully made me feel like an idiot for going by stats alone. There’s something to be said for #1 defensive assignments and protecting the basketball. Iggy, for now, you have the last spot.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Jared’s Picks

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
  2. Paul George
  3. Rudy Gobert

This was the hardest award to determine. Several times Giannis and George held the top spot in my rankings.

At the end of the day, Antentokounmpo is the best defender on the best defensive team, by defensive rating, in the NBA this year and that is tough to pass up. He leads the NBA in defensive win shares with 3.8 and defensive rating at 97.9.

With his size, length and athleticism Giannis can affect both passing lanes and protect the rim. Giannis’ 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game exacerbate a versatility shared by few in the league, only Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis share the honor (per basketball-reference). This versatility allows Budenholzer to play Giannis at the stretch four alongside Lopez and also as the lone center in small ball lineups where he can actually provide legitimate rim protection unlike other small ball centers.

It’s not the MVP award James Harden snatched from his back pocket, but DPOY might be even more meaningful to Giannis this year.

Paul George is impacting the Thunder in a rare way as a perimeter player. He has been a menace on defense individually and getting into passing lanes. George ranks first in the NBA with 2.3 steals per game and second in deflections per game with 3.9. George ranks third in defensive win shares with 3.3 and is eighth in defensive rating at 102.7. Perhaps most telling is that the Thunder have a -8.6 defensive rating with George on the floor vs when he’s on the bench.

Alas, its incredibly difficult for a perimeter player to win Defensive Player of the Year. In the last 30 years only two have won the award, Kawhi Leonard (twice) and Gary Payton. George is certainly deserving this year, but Giannis’ total impact and better defensive statistics give him the edge.

Your annual spot in the DPOY rankings is reserved, right this way Mr. Gobert.

Gobert continues to be the best interior defender in the NBA, although Myles Turner is giving him a nice run for his money this year. Though his normal spot atop the blocks category has been thefted by Turner (2.7), Gobert is still producing a top-5 season in the category with 2.2 blocks per game. Nonetheless, Gobert’s total defensive impact is great then Turner, helped somewhat by their differential in defensive rebounds (9.1 vs 5.8).

The Stifle Tower second in defensive win shares with 3.6 and third in defensive rating with 100.2, proving that its not all about blocks with after all. If Gobert won the defensive player of the year award ever year, I wouldn’t complain.

Rob’s Picks

  1. Paul George
  2. Rudy Gobert
  3. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Defense has long been the most difficult aspect of the game to quantify in terms of analytics. It is generally harder to measure the impact of preventing a shot attempt or how much influence a defender has in a missed shot, than it is to measure the efficiency of the shot itself. Still, as a stats-based blog, analytics has come a long way and there are certain stats that measure up with the eye test.

In this case, Paul George having the 3rd best defensive win share among qualifying players makes sense (Giannis being first, more on him in a bit). PG-13 also has the best DRPM among wing players, leads the league in total steals, deflected balls, and according to a recent Kirk Goldsberry article, is 1st in the league by far in loose balls recovered. What a stat, Kirk! Paul George is doing all this while also have the best offensive year of his career, and he’s managing to do so alongside a player who has a usage rate over 30% (I’ll give you one guess who that is). Last stat, OKC is 8.6 points better defensively with Paul George on the court. Paul George is the easy choice for the DPOY here.

The second spot goes to a mainstay on the list now and for the foreseeable future in Rudy Gobert. Do the stats even need to be listed? He is among the top in all the usual categories: 1st in DRPM, 2nd in defensive win share, 4th in blocks, and 3rd in the league in field goals defended per game (a hair behind Joel Embiid). Gobert gets the edge over Embiid in this case due to just how much the defense is predicated on his actions and overall team success in terms of defensive efficiency. There are individual games where he takes over, such as on Christmas Day, and already has TEN games with 4 or more blocks.

The last spot was an impossible decision between Giannis and Embiid. Turner and Siakam are also knocking on the door but they’re probably one year away from being on the ballot. Pelicans are too bad to consider AD as of now. In the end, I went with my usual tiebreaker of team success, and the Bucks have the best defensive rating in the league led by Giannis, as previously mentioned is 1st in defensive win share, and he also has an edge in defensive field goal percentage vs expected (-5.7 for the Greek Freak vs -3.4 for Embiid as seen here). Embiid may end up taking this spot by end of season, but for now, I think Giannis deserves recognition on both the MVP and DPOY ballot – an honor that could also apply to Paul George.