1. LaMelo Ball, PG, Ilharra Hawks

LaMelo Ball has the widest range of outcomes of the top players in this draft, ranging from superstar to role player. Similar to his brother Lonzo, LaMelo comes into the draft billed as a prolific play maker with questionable shot mechanics. While Lonzo mostly delivered on his hype, he fell short of being a franchise player. LaMelo has the potential to live up to that hype. Between the two, LaMelo is a superior ball handler, more explosive athlete and seems a more natural playmaker. At 6’7″ Ball has elite size for his position but doesn’t seem to be compromised for it in either coordination or agility. While his size helps him to see into passing lanes, Ball does not yet use it effectively at the rim often deferring contact in favor of long distance floaters. His shot mechanics, while not as bad as Lonzo coming into the draft, are still poor and suffer from a low release point. In the NBL last season, Ball shot just 25% from three on 6.7 attempts per game.

What LaMelo lacks in shooting ability and defensive willingness, he makes up for in natural scoring and playmaking ability. The below play is one of the more impressively creative freelance plays I’ve seen from a prospect in a few years. It’s that natural ability, combined with drive for the game that makes Ball a potential superstar.

2. Anthony Edwards, SG, Georgia

The NBA is all about talent and Edwards has it. In a draft widely criticized for its lack of top-end talent, Edwards has the potential to be a three-level wing scorer at the next level. As a freshman at Georgia, Edwards averaged 19.1 points per game. He’s a premier athlete who can take it coast-to-coast and thrives in transition. Edwards can also score with the ball in his hand with legitimate ability to hit step back threes and take his opponent off the dribble to finish strong at the rim. As with many scoring wings his age, lack of effort on the defensive end is a problem.

Prior to the past few days, my biggest issue with Edwards was his shot selection. He’d often taken contested jumpers with lots of time on the shot clock. It translated to the stat sheet as the Ant Man hit just 40% of his field goals and 29% of his threes. However, in recent days another red flag has surfaced. In an interview with ESPN, Edwards gave a few worrisome quotes for someone expected to be a top NBA draft pick.

He says he doesn’t think about being the first player taken. He’ll be ready when the time comes, but “other than that, I don’t even care.”

“To be honest,” he says, “I can’t watch basketball.”

“I’m still not really into it,” he says. “I love basketball, yeah. It’s what I do.”

He’s not entirely convincing. He says if he were drafted by the NFL tomorrow, he’d let basketball go. “Because you can do anything on the field,” he explains. “You can spike the ball. You can dance. You can do all type of disrespectful stuff.” In the NBA, he says, “you can’t do any of that. You’ll get fined.”

Quotes like these are concerning for a young man you are considering taking with the #1 overall pick in the draft. Edwards is one of the two most talented players in the draft, but doesn’t seem to be in love with basketball. Still it’s hard to drop him outside of the top-3 given his upside, and this draft’s lack of top-end talent.

3. James Wiseman, C, Memphis

Out of the top 3 project picks this year, Wiseman has the highest floor. In addition to his 7’1″ height and 7’6″ wingspan, Wiseman displays explosive athleticism. Unfortunately we had a very small sample size to watch it on display. Wiseman played just 3 games before the NCAA suspended him for 12 games for a payment Penny Hardaway made in 2017 to cover expenses for Wiseman’s family to move from Nashville to Memphis. In this draft, what we saw in those 3 games was enough to lock him into a top-3 selection tonight. Wiseman projects as an elite defensive rebounder and rim protector with the potential to turn into more.

In the below clip you can see his form on a turn-around jumper. He shot 70.4% from the line on 9 free throws per game. An indication that Wiseman has the potential to be more than just a DeAndre Jordan at the next level.

4. Isaac Okoro, SG, Auburn

Outside of the top-3 there are a hodge podge of players that have their own unique upside and situations. Out of those, Isaac Okoro represents a combination of athleticism and motor that makes him the next best thing. While he doesn’t offer the upside of the top-3, Okoro is an elite workhorse who plays hard throughout the duration of the game, especially on defense. He looks to have the classic makings of a 3-and-D player. As a freshman he was constantly put on the opposition’s best player and averaged 0.9 steals and blocks per game. Okoro only hit 28.9% of his 3 pointers, but has solid mechanical foundation and is a hard worker. In a draft full of question marks, Okoro’s effort is not. Expect him to be an Andre Iguodala type player.

5. Deni Avdija, G, Maccabi Tel Aviv

Avdija has gotten the most hype out of the international prospects and deservedly so. On film, Avdija has flashed the ability to pass, shoot and score taking on the role of international prospect who can do it all. That pretty much lands him anywhere between Dragan Bender and Luka Doncic, more realistically probably somewhere in the Dario Saric range. Avdija has plenty of professional experience yet didn’t play big minutes until the tail end of his last season. Once coming back from their covid break however, Avdija put up huge numbers averaging 17.3 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 28.9 minutes.  

6. Obi Toppin, F, Dayton

Toppin was one of the biggest surprises of college basketball last year, putting up 20 points and 7.5 rebounds, shooting 39% from three on his way to AP Player of the Year. Toppin is already 22 years old as a red shirt Sophmore but has proven his ability to score at the next level. The biggest worry with Toppin is defensively where he is a bit flat footed and can get exposed in switches. He projects as a stretch four in the NBA who will be able to score.

7. R.J. Hampton, PG, New Zealand Breakers

R.J. Hampton is the most mysterious player in this draft. Going he same route as LaMelo Ball (overseas) Hampton had much less satisfactory results. His lack of elite numbers (8.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists in 20 minutes per game) in New Zealand have certainly hurt his draft stock. However, in a draft devoid of surefire talent, Hampton still displayed elite ability on film. He’s a 6’5″ scoring point guard who can get the rim easily both in transition and half court sets. While he has solid shooting mechanics he shot just 29.5% from three, that will have to improve in order to be a reliable scorer at the next level. There are certainly less risky picks in this draft, but Hampton seems like an Anfernee Simons type risk who’s going to get drafted well below his talent tonight.

8. Precious Achiuwa, F, Memphis

Achiuwa may be this year’s most underrated player. No he doesn’t have the potential to be a go to player on offense. But outside of the top-3 few do, and Achiuwa offers an elite athlete from the stretch four spot. In many ways he reminds me of Jerami Grant and can bring a huge impact to an NBA team on both ends of the floor. From a purely numbers standpoint, Achiuwa averaged 15.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 1.1 steals in 30 minutes per game. He also was able to knock down 32.5% of his three pointers, very impressive for his athleticism and size. Look for Achiuwa to be a starting stretch four at the next level.

9. Devin Vassell, G, Florida State

Vassell can give Isaac Okoro a run for his money for the best perimeter defender in this draft. Vassell averaged 1.4 steals and 1 block per game as a wing, thanks in large part due to his defensive IQ and 6’10” wingspan. Despite some scary mechanical videos this offseason, he shot a very solid 41.5% from three projecting as one of the draft’s better 3-and-D prospects.

10. Onyeka Okongwu, C, USC

Okongwu is potentially a top-5 talent in this draft who falls a bit due to his position. Okongwu is the classic overworker, who wasn’t seen to have elite talent from a young age, so it would be no surprise to see him do it again in the NBA. From a statistical standpoint, Okongwu checks all the boxes averaging 16.2 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game as a freshman at USC. While only 6’9″, Okongwu plays like a center defending the rim and scoring in the post, a lost art nowadays. He can likely be a starting center in today’s NBA with the ability to play either forward or center.

11. Kira Lewis Jr., PG, Alabama

Kira Lewis Jr. is the fastest player in this draft, though slight of frame at just 163 pounds. It hurts his ability to finish around the rim and defend. However, if Kira is able to put on some weight without losing speed he could be a steal. Lewis Jr. put up 18.5 points, 5.2 assists and 1.8 steals for Alabama last season. He can get down in transition in an instant and is a good passer. He shot 36.6% from three showing he can score dowhill and form beyond the arc. Don’t be surprised if Kira Lewis is the secon best player in this draft.

12. Patrick Williams, F, Florida State

Patrick Williams is one of the highest upside picks in this draft. Williams has a ton of athleticism, and probably could have been helped by another year in college. However in just 22 minutes per game, Williams averaged 1 steal and block per game to go with 9 points and 4 rebounds per game. Williams has shown to the ability to be hawk on the defensive end, getting in passing lanes and chasing down blocks. He also showed the ability to knock down the three at 32% last year. Williams will be an active defensive stretch four.

13. Killian Hayes, PG, Ratiopharm Ulm

If its not Hampton, then Hayes is the most enigmatic player from this draft. Hayes has gone as high as #1 on the Ringer draft board to out of the lottery. While he seems to have great vision and passing ability, his athleticism and shooting did not show up on film as much as I’d like for a top-10 pick. However, he did average 12.8 points and 6.2 assists for Ulm in the Eurocup last season and has a veteran like calm to his play. Hayes may end up being a steal this year due to his lack of exposure and veteran like vision and demeanor at only 19 years old.

14. Saddiq Bey, F, Villanova

Saddiq Bey became one of the safest picks in the draft due to a very good all-around year for Villanova this year. Putting up 16 points on 45% shooting from three, Bey can also score down low and the mid-range. His position at the next level is a bit unclear as his rebounding (4.7 per game) is not ideal for a stretch four. Bey projects as a bench 3/4 who can shoot and do a lot of the little things.

15. Tyrese Haliburton, G, Iowa State

Haliburton has all the stats you’d want as point guard coming out of college. 15.2 points, 6.5 assists, 5.9 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game. He’s also unselfish and has great vision in the backcourt. Admittedly this might be a big miss by me if Haliburton ends up being a top-5 or 10 player from this draft. I have no doubts Haliburton will be a good all-around role player, however I don’t see the ability to create off the dribble that makes him a lottery pick. Having said that Haliburton will play hard both ways and pass on top of it.

16. Aaron Nesmith, G, Vanderbilt

If we’ve learned nothing in the past few years in the NBA, it’s that there is always a spot for a solid shooter. If he’s nothing else, Nesmith is a bonafide shooter. Before a foot injury cut his season short at Vanderbilt last season, Nesmith was averaging 23 points while shooting 52.2% from three on 8.2 attempts per game.