Jimmy Butler and Tom Thibodeau are in a classic lover’s quarrel. They are a match made in heaven, all of their friends tell them they’re perfect for each other. But petty reasons are forcing them apart.
This is now the second time Jimmy and Tom have been together. The first, they were ripped apart against their will. Jimmy having to settle for GarPax’s sloppy seconds with some guy named ‘Fred’. Tom moving to Minnesota and finally finding some independence.
Of course, Tom welcomed Jimmy back with open arms the moment GarPax didn’t want him anymore.
As with most relationships, there is discord. Jimmy is upset that Tom has eyes for two younger, more talented players in Towns and Wiggins. They haven’t been through what Jimmy and Tom have, why do they deserve Thib’s attention? He wants to move on and find someone who truly appreciates him. But Tom needs Jimmy’s consistency, hoping to smooth over this rough patch and work things out like they always have.
Should he stay or should he go now?
From a pure basketball perspective, Minnesota is a good fit for Butler. A team featuring him, Wiggins and Towns has upward trajectory. Karl-Anthony Towns is the ideal center in the modern NBA. Not to mention one of the most promising young players in the game. His combination of scoring, rebounding and shooting fit alongside nearly any player. Wiggins is a bit of a different story. What he has in god-given ability, he lacks in intensity and consistency. Butler’s arrival brought a decrease in Wiggins’ usage (29% to 23.4%) and an increase in tension.
From an outside perspective it’s difficult to discern exactly where the tension is coming from. But at its most fundamental level, it seems to be a personality difference. Butler is a self made millionaire. He went from being a non-lottery role player to an NBA star. His current Timberwolves co-stars are the opposite, coming from a pedigree of being the #1 overall pick. At this point, Butler seems more interested in joining another cast of players already possessing his mentality, rather than bringing his teammates to his level. A shame because the latter looks possible and more rewarding.
While I think its entirely possible Butler starts the season with Minnesota and comes to this realization (Thibs is trying), the odds are owner Glen Taylor gets itchy and ultimately deals Butler himself.
Miami
Pat Riley is always looking to add quality players. Even as a means to no end. Ever since the heist of the century, Pat Riley’s management strategy is running on fumes. Trying to prove the Heat can stay competitive, while avoiding a complete rebuild, has left them in basketball purgatory. Jimmy Butler the next chapter in a familiar tale.
What assets do the Heat actually have? The team is littered with a hodge-podge of role players with different skill sets. Whiteside’s outsized cap figure and personality outweigh his elite rim protection and rebounding. Winslow is a nice young player, but his recent 3-year, $39 million contract makes him much less attractive.
Goran Dragic is their best player, and even at 32 holds value, I’m sure Riley would rather pair him with Butler. Bam Adebayo is their most promising young player and has thus far not been for sale. Which leaves Josh Richardson, a promising two-way player on an attractive contract (4-year, $42 million). A solid building block, its hard to differentiate his success from Richardson himself and Erik Spoelstra’s coaching. Minnesota needs more than just Richardson to budge.
For a deal to push Minnesota over the top, Miami should have to get Sacramento involved to take the contract of Gorgui Dieng.
| MIN | MIA | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Richardson SF (MIA) | Jimmy Butler G/F (MIN) | Gorgui Dieng C (MIN) |
| Dion Waiters G (MIA) | 2019 1st MIA (MIA) | |
| Iman Shumpert G/F (SAC) |
Assuming a lightly protected 2019 1st round pick is enough for Sacramento to take the remainder of Dieng’s 3 years, $33 million this deal hits all the buttons for Minnesota. To what end it helps Miami (a 4 or 5 seed in the East?) is another story.
Houston
Perhaps the most interesting team on this list. Houston is a real contender and a Butler acquisition is not a clear improvement on a team that had great chemistry last year. When you are competing with a behemoth such as the Warriors are, sometimes you need to take extraordinary risks. To be honest, I’m not sure of the impact Butler will have both offensively and in the locker room. But he will markedly improve two areas Houston will need going head-to-head with Golden State – star power and defense.
When Golden State goes small, they can feature lineups of Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Green-Durant. Currently, Houston can roll out a lineup of Paul-Harden-Gordon-Tucker-Capela to counter. Definitely not a bad option, and Gordon played great basketball in the playoffs especially after Paul went down in Game 5. Gordon also gives them a player with a clearly defined role as a shooter. But Jimmy Butler brings something the Rockets could actually use in the heat of another tough playoff matchup – intensity. If Houston is able to keep Tucker in a trade for Butler, they have to go for it. Recent reports have indicated Minnesota has demanded both Gordon and Tucker.
Now Minnesota might refute this road, based purely off the fact that it enhances a conference rival. However, this deal gives them a better veteran player than Miami can in Richardson.
*Proposed trade could not be completed until October 31st when Marquese Chriss’ trade restriction expires
| MIN | HOU |
|---|---|
| Eric Gordon G | Jimmy Butler G/F |
| Marquese Chriss PF | |
| Nene Hilario C | |
| 2019 1st HOU |
Los Angeles
The Clippers have big plans for this off-season. Kawhi Leonard. Banking off reports that Leonard prefers to go to the city of Los Angeles, the Clippers have honed in on snagging him from Toronto.
As currently constructed, the Clippers actually have a decent supporting cast if you imagine plugging Kawhi Leonard in there. Many of the current pieces will melt away to create the requisite room for Leonard. But currently Avery Bradley, Lou Williams and Danilo Gallinari are key players committed for next year. Los Angeles has made it clear it would rather trade Gallinari in lieu of Tobias Harris. This is obvious, Harris is younger, less injury prone and can play the stretch four. He’d be a good theoretical fit next to a wing combination of Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard.
This trade would replace Butler with Gallinari and give Minnesota a versatile defensive guard in Beverly. Depending on Thibs’ preference the deal may work.
*2021 1st would turn into a 2022 1st if Los Angeles is forced to convey a 2020 1st to Boston
| MIN | LAC |
|---|---|
| Danilo Gallinari SF | Jimmy Butler G/F |
| Patrick Beverly G | |
| 2021 1st LAC* |
Philadelphia
A team on the rise, its star players Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are just 22-years and 24-years old, respectively. Their championship window is large, pending health, and the Sixers have rightfully been on the outskirts of conversations when most stars become available. Jimmy Butler is no exception.
There is also a reason they haven’t pulled the trigger for one yet. The goal is to add a star without giving a member of their current core, which currently includes Simmons, Embiid, Fultz, Saric and this year’s rookies. Covington is a fringe part of this group, as a bonafide 3-and-D player with a great contract 4 years, $46 million remaining. A stark contrast to the 5 years, $190 million Jimmy Butler will demand this off-season at nearly 30-years old. Ultimately this will detract Philly from attaching any of the aforementioned assets to a Butler deal.
A deal including Wilson Chandler, TJ McConnell and a 2019 first may be enough to entice Minnesota given a dearth of other offers. I wouldn’t expect Philadelphia to attach many more future assets. This would give Philly a chance at the Finals this year, without sacrificing any major assets. It leaves out a key young player for Minnesota, though. A deal probably doesn’t get done here.
| MIN | PHI |
|---|---|
| 2019 1st PHI | Jimmy Butler G/F |
| Wilson Chandler F | |
| T.J. McConnell PG | |
| Jerryd Bayless G |
Brooklyn
Brooklyn has been slowly clawing themselves out of a crater created by the infamous Billy King trade. It has finally got back to neutral. Brooklyn has all of their first-round picks and cap flexibility for the first time in years. This summer they will have enough cap space for two maximum free agent salaries. The question now becomes, how will they use it?
The mid-summer rumors of an Irving/Butler back court have recently been demolished by recent proclamations by Irving himself that he’ll re-sign with Boston. While Brooklyn has stockpiled an interesting cupboard of young players, none of them feel like true building blocks. D’Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are all in the final years of their contract. To create the aforementioned maximum cap space they can’t all be re-signed.
Russell is the youngest of the group and has shown both the ability to score and pass. But he has yet to shoot over 41.5% from the field and features an assist-to-turnover ratio of just 1.68. If Brooklyn is just going to let him walk at the end of the year, it’s worth seeing if they can get a max player now. Faried is a throwaway to Brooklyn but may actually prove an asset to Minnesota.
Brooklyn would rather maintain its flexibility than make a flashy move. Sean Marks is willing to wait for Butler’s price to come down before jumping into the race. Minnesota would need to really lose out on other offers to go down this path.
| MIN | BKN |
|---|---|
| D'Angelo Russell G | Jimmy Butler G/F |
| Kenneth Faried F |