The Knicks have agreed to sign Robin Lopez for $54 million over four years.
He wasn’t their first, second or even third choice. The chances at landing LaMarcus Aldridge or DeAndre Jordan were remote, but the hope was there. When their attempts at landing the marquee bigs were futile, the full-proof fallback was supposed to be Greg Monroe. We had been hearing for months that Monroe was a lock to come to New York (via Frank Isola). But then Monroe spurned the Knicks as well, opting for the uber athletic Bucks, who can cover his defensive deficiencies.
Once Monroe inked his deal with Milwaukee, the Knicks moved quickly to employ Lopez’s services. The big man served as LaMarcus Aldridge’s personal body guard the past two years. Coincidentally, they were the best two years of his career. Next to Lopez, Aldridge averaged 23+ points and 10+ rebounds per contest. It’s the first time Aldridge averaged double digit rebounds in his career and his two best statistical seasons, despite playing the least minutes since his sophmore season.
In fact, it seems Lopez has a positive impact on his entire team. The below video analysis shows how Lopez improved the Blazers team defense and rebounding.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9InsVaep7k
These are things that do not show up on the box score for Lopez. However, there are ways to quantify his impact. Lopez averages 3.9 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes for his career. According to Nylon Calculus, Lopez was the 11th best rim protector last year and 2nd the prior year.
While he’s not the big name Knicks fans had hoped for, Lopez may actually be a better fit. If you recall the 2012-13 season, Carmelo Anthony plays his best basketball at power forward. That only works if he’s playing next to an active rim protector. Enter the 27-year old Robin Lopez, who will patrol the Knicks’ paint through his prime.
The comparison to Tyson Chandler seems an obvious one. After all, it was Chandler that anchored the defense during that 54-win season.
Lopez has actually been the superior rim protector to Chandler the past two seasons. That may come as a shock to Knicks fans, but not those following Blazer basketball. He has also matched Chandler’s offensive rebounding output on a per-36 minute basis, 3.9 ORPG for Lopez vs 4.0 ORPG for Chandler.
There are two marked differences in their games. Tyson is a superior defensive rebounder, and its not close. Per 36 minutes, Lopez’s 4.7 defensive boards pale in comparison to Chandler’s 7.6. That is a large difference, but as seen in the above video analysis Lopez’s presence improves his team’s rebounding. In the two years before his arrival, the Trailblazers where 25th and 24th in total rebounding. The last two years they were 1st and 2nd. It’s clear Lopez has a positive impact on a team’s overall rebounding despite lack of individual defensive rebounds.
The second, overlooked, difference is Lopez’s more diversified offensive game. I would not identify Lopez as a “scorer” by any means. But he is more than just your typical stand under the basket center. Lopez has a legitimate mid-range game. According to Shot Analytics, he hit 44% of the 135 mid-range jumpers he attempted last season. That versatility will make him valuable in the triangle offense.
Combine his rim protection and rebounding impact, with his ability to score outside the paint, and you have one of the more underrated big men in the NBA. Lopez should be a bargain once the cap rises in 2016-07, where his salary will be the equivalent of $7.9 million in today’s cap (courtesy of Howard Beck). He wasn’t the sexy pickup fans wanted, but Lopez is the best fit for New York.
Oh, and did I mention he doesn’t like mascots? He should fit in just fine here.