1. Zion Williamson, F, Duke
Age: 19.0 | Height: 6’7″ | Weight: 285 | Wingspan: 6’10”
Long hyped as a slam dunk champion heading into the 2018 college basketball season, Williamson proved to be that and much more by the end of his lone season at Duke. A crème de la crème athlete, even by NBA standards, Zion possesses an incredibly rare combination of size, strength, explosiveness and leaping ability. From a pure physical standpoint the only player who comes to mind is a young LeBron James. Zion combines his elite physical traits with a motor to match, his athletic gifts wrapped with the mental drive that makes talented players productive.
Williamson is a whopping 285 pounds built out of a block of muscle, but that doesn’t slow him down a bit. If you are standing between him and the basket in transition, best to get out of the way. Williamson is an absolute freight train with a head of steam, an elite finisher in transition or with any space. Williamson can score easily from the block using his size, strength and speed to get through or around opposing players. These two areas helped Williamson post an absurd 74.7 2P% in his freshman season at Duke. He has the quickest first and second jump off the floor of anyone in the draft; he puts it to work on the offensive glass where he averaged 3.5 offensive rebounds per game. He’s a willing and able passer, often times giving the ball up to Barrett and other teammates. Williamson’s gifts also translate to the defensive end where he was often engaged – averaging 2.1 steals and 1.8 blocks per contest. Despite his 6’7″ height, Williamson’s quick leaping ability make him a legitimate rim protector. Given his strength he can easily hold his own in the post against NBA 4’s and probably even 5’s. Zion is often focused off the ball as well able to get into passing lanes.
He doesn’t come without his flaws. His shooting both from deep (33.8%) and the line (64%) could use some work, coming from a slow windup. Williamson also didn’t prove that he can be a primary ball-handler or shot creator in the half court at the college level, leaving most of the work to R.J. Barrett at Duke. However, none of this detracts enough from him to have even a passing thought of passing at him at #1. Williamson is truly a generational athlete who backs it up with a hot motor and solid basketball IQ. A nearly guaranteed All-Star with an All-NBA ceiling.
2. R.J. Barrett, G/F, Duke
Age: 19.0 | Height: 6’7″ | Weight: 208 | Wingspan: 6’10”
The preseason favorite to be the first selection in this year’s draft, Barrett has taken a backseat to Duke teammate Zion Williamson. This of course having more to do with Williamson’s emergence than Barrett disappointing. Disappoint he did not. R.J. Barrett had one of the most productive freshman years in college basketball history. With 860 total points scored, he crushed Kenny Anderson’s mark of 776 to claim the most points by a freshman in ACC history. His freshman year output of 860 ranks second to only J.J. Redick’s senior season total of 964, in Duke school history.
Barrett has both the size and feel of a modern day NBA wing. While he is certainly a plus NBA athlete, he’s not overly elite in that regard. Barrett relies more on his footwork and herky jerky play-style to weave his way into the paint off pick and roll action. Once into the defense, R.J. does not shy away from contact. Barrett continuously seeks it out having the strength and fortitude to do so. However, when in tight areas his athleticism diminishes a bit and he tends to play more at, or below the rim, than above it. This aspect of his game opens up a key and continuously developing component – his play-making. Barrett acted as the primary ball-handler with regularity at Duke, flashing the ability to be somewhat of a point-scoring guard similar to how James Harden is deployed, averaging 4.3 assists. He’s able to find drop-off candidates and open shooters at times but still has more work to do. It certainly didn’t help that Duke was one of the worst perimeter shooting teams in college basketball last season, ranking 328th in the country shooting 30.8% from three. Improved NBA spacing should do wonders for his game.
R.J. Barrett is a true competitor who had an incredibly productive freshman season. The fact that he was able to seamlessly integrate with Williamson with no friction speaks to his game and character. Perhaps most telling for Barrett was 6-game the stretch Zion was injured, he averaged 26.2 points, 8.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists. Much like, and more so, than Williamson, Barrett will have to improve his shooting. While a good athlete, he is not good enough to consistently blow by defenders without the threat of a pull-up or set jumper. His mechanics are solid but his shot does look a bit forced and mechanical. Nevertheless, Barrett’s production as a freshman and upside as a primary or secondary ball-handler and scorer at the next level make him a prime All-Star candidate.
3. Ja Morant, PG, Murray State
Age: 19.9 | Height: 6’3″ | Weight: 170 | Wingspan: 6’6″
Ja Morant had perhaps the most meteoric rise of anyone in this draft. In a now widely noted story, Murray State assistant coach James Kane was scouting another prospect when he discovered Ja Morant in an auxiliary gym. Morant was an unranked college prospect at a local combine trying to get recognition, it might have worked.
Ja went from an overlooked prospect to the only player in college basketball history to average 20 points and 10 assists per game while leading Murray State to an NCAA tournament berth. Perhaps unfairly compared to the Russell Westbrook, Morant’s brand of athleticism seems more of a hybrid between the latter and De’Aaron Fox. Not quite as tenacious as Westbrook or speedy as Fox. But make no mistake, Morant is both explosive and speedy. Ja is at his best in the open court, able and willing to push the ball. Here he lets his athleticism take over, leading to easy baskets for him and opening up passing opportunities. Morant is a very good passer at this stage both in the open court and out of the pick and roll. His passes are crisp and on point, usually hitting shooters in stride off one hand. His ongoing mastery of the pick and roll is perhaps his greatest strength heading into the NBA. Not only is he able to hit the roll man and split screens, but Morant is adept at seeing shooters off the ball in the corners.
At times, Morant can get overly flashy with his passes. Instead of making the simple pass and resetting the offense, he’ll try to thread one that isn’t there or try a no-look. Likely a combination of this and his high usage rate (33.3%) Morant led the nation in turnovers per game with 5.2. While he shot 36.3% from three this year, Morant does not have a natural looking shot and his release is a bit too low and slow at this stage to be a pull-up shooter at the next level.
Morant is one of the safer bets in the draft given his athleticism and passing ability. With a proven track record for hard work and yearning to get better, Morant should continue to do so at the next level. Expect Morant to break in with the next wave of NBA point guards.
4. Darius Garland, PG, Vanderbilt
Age: 19.4 | Height: 6’3″ | Weight: 173 | Wingspan: 6’5″
The biggest enigma at the top of the draft, Garland’s lack of tape seems to be creating more positive mystery than negative. Despite playing only 5 games at Vanderbilt, due to a torn meniscus suffered early in the season while attempting a layup against Kent State, Garland flashed enough tape at Vanderbilt in conjunction with his time on Team USA to be considered a top pick.
Garland’s game is built for today’s NBA. Much like a Steph Curry or Trae Young, Garland’s game is setup from the outside in. Possibly the quickest guard in this draft, he combines speed with elite handle to create separation for his dead eye shooting. While a limited sample size of just five games, Garland did shoot 47.8% from three on 4.6 attempts per game. His release is quick, compact and looks natural. Garland is equally comfortable shooting off the bounce as he is off the ball. In both situations he maintains excellent balance and is able to get his shot off exceptionally quickly. Garland has shown some passing instincts, but his 2.6 assists to 3 turnovers show there is clearly still work to do there. Perhaps most concerning for Garland, other than his injury, is that he will get hunted on switches. He has decent size, but a light frame without the athleticism someone like Ja Morant has to make up for it.
There is a limited amount of tape here which always makes it a risky pick. However, after the top three its worthy to gamble on a player with upside and Garland fits the bill due to his shooting ability, handle and quickness.
5. De’Andre Hunter, F, Virginia
Age: 21.6 | Height: 6’8″ | Weight: 227 | Wingspan: 7’2″
Hunter has come a long way in his collegiate development. Starting with a redshirt his freshman year, Hunter did not get much time his first year playing on a #1 Virginia team whose fate ended…poorly.
This year was a seismic shift for De’Andre who saw his role expand to being the second leading scorer and best defender on a team that went on to win the National Championship. Hunter had arguably the best game of his career in that game scoring 27 points to go with 9 rebounds, while hitting a key corner three to tie the game with 12 seconds left. In that game, Hunter dominated physically seemingly getting key rebounds and hitting shots exactly when they were needed.
Hunter’s main draw at the next level is as a bonafide 3-and-D caliber player with the upside for more. From a pure baseline perspective, he won the ACC defensive player of the year and shot 43.8% from three. Both impressive for a player of his size. While Hunter doesn’t get very many steals (0.6) or blocks (0.6), he is a tremendous on-ball defender who uses his body and verticality to wall off players driving into the lane. When they do get shots off he deters them with his 7’2″ wingspan. On offense, Hunter has shown great improvements in his ability to hit shots both out of the post and on the move.
De’Andre Hunter reminds me of some combination of PJ Tucker and Kawhi Leonard. If the former is his floor, that’s good news for NBA teams who can always use a defensive stopper who can hit shots from the outside, but there seems to be more there. Hunter’s true upside lies in his ability to continue developing his offensive game and become a secondary scoring threat at the next level.
6. Jarrett Culver, G/F, Texas Tech
Age: 20.3 | Height: 6’6.75″ | Weight: 194 | Wingspan: 6’9.5″
Speaking of another player who made a big jump from his freshman to sophomore year, and led his team to the National Championship game, Jarrett Culver.
Culver went from a nice athlete with potential, to one who started to put things together. In his sophomore season, Culver became the go-to scorer and playmaker on a Texas Tech team that badly needed it, leading the team in points (18.5) and assists (3.7) per game. Acting as the lead guard the majority of the time, Culver learned to play out of the pick and roll which should help him at the next level. A key component of this was fixing his shot. His freshman year there is a clear hitch to the side in his shot which disappeared this past year. Although his 3P% actually went down from 38.2% to 30.4% that is likely a byproduct of his increased role and fatigue. Culver’s new shooting motion clearly was a benefit when shooting pull-up jumpers off pick and roll action in the mid-range.
Shooting aside, Culver is adept at taking it to the rim. While athletic with good height, Culver seems to play at the rim a bit when initiating contact, which he does often. Improving his strength and weight may help him finish a bit more at the next level. On the defensive side, Culver was part of Texas Tech team that ranked first in Defensive Rating in the nation. Culver is a solid on-ball defender and, as a product of Chris Beard’s scheme, one off it as well.
Culver has ideal size as a wing with above average athleticism and playmaking ability. He’s as safe a pick as there is outside the top 3 to be an NBA starter. His upside will depend a lot on how consistent he can become shooting from beyond the arc in the NBA and how good he actually is defensively outside of Chris Beard’s scheme.
7. Nassir Little, G/F, UNC
Age: 19.4 | Height: 6’6″ | Weight: 224 | Wingspan: 7’1.25″
Coming into the college basketball season, Little was widely regarded as a top 3 or 4 prospect in the class. In a class loaded with players such as Zion, Barrett and teammate Coby White, Little struggled out of the gate quickly being labelled a bust. However, as the season went on Little started to gain more comfortability on the floor, especially on the offensive end.
His stats don’t jump out at you, after all Little averaged just 18 minutes per contest at UNC. Extrapolating those stats out on a per 40 basis, Little averaged 21 points, 10 rebounds and 1.2 blocks and steals per 40. Little has the ideal NBA body for a wing and top-level athleticism and bounce to go with it. The lack of production was not for a lack of trying. Little has a high motor constantly crashing the boards and acting as a strong defender early on.
Much of what Little lacks can be gained. He only shot 26.9% from three, a sacrilegious number in today’s NBA, but his shot mechanics look better than those shooting a higher percentage. With more practice he should become at least a 34-35% shooter from downtown. The rest on the offensive end can come with time and practice. In the interim, Little can be a very serviceable stretch 4 in small ball lineups due to his strength at 225 pounds, and even the 3 as his jumper becomes more consistent.
At the end of the day, you aren’t drafting Little for what he currently is, but what he can become. His current trajectory reminds me a lot of Andre Iguodala who struggled his freshman year, and with shooting throughout college. Little can be every bit the defender and hustle player as Iguodala with an even better shot.
8. Cam Reddish, F, Duke
Age: 19.8 | Height: 6’8″ | Weight: 207 | Wingspan: 7’0.5″
If Garland is the most enigmatic due to injury, then Reddish takes the cake among those who played. Reddish was the first of Duke’s big three to commit, and now might be wondering “what if” he’d played somewhere else. With the emergence of Zion as the best player in college basketball, and R.J. Barrett already the top recruit, Reddish was relegated to primarily a catch-and-shoot role at Duke last year.
Reddish has all the size and athleticism you’d ever want from an NBA wing. He’s a smooth athlete with a smooth jumper who can operate in space and off the dribble. Reddish did not get to show all that he can do at Duke, leaving teams the task of doing some educated guesswork. In flashes it looks like he has the potential to be a go-to scorer, but too often last year he fell by the wayside. While his shooting motion is smooth, but he only knocked down 33.3% of his threes. Given the open looks he got playing next to Zion and Barrett its a bit disappointing. While Reddish can get the rim he seems to shy away from contact far too often for someone of his stature. One area that Reddish was reliable was the defensive end. He used his physical tools for the better and when locked in looks like he can be a very good on-ball defender, averaging 1.6 steals per game.
Reddish comes in with as much talent as anyone outside of Zion, but his mentality and lack of production make him a gamble. He can definitely be an All-Star in the NBA but will have to prove he’s comfortable having the ball in his hands. At this point in the draft, risk meets reward.
9. Romeo Langford, G/F, Indiana
Age: 19.1 | Height: 6’6″ | Weight: 215 | Wingspan: 6’11”
Perhaps the most frustrating player to analyze in the entire draft. Romeo Langford possesses the prototypical size for an NBA wing at 6’6″, 215 and a 6’11” wingspan. With the ball in his hands he seems destined to be a scorer at the next level. Langford can create off the dribble using step-backs and multiple between the legs crossovers. He’s also dynamic going to the basket, able to beat defenders with his first step and finishing well at the rim with his size and lenth.
However, without the ball Langford is typically disengaged whether it be on offense or defense. He tends to stand around while the action is not directly involving him. Even if he were moving, his off ball shooting is suspect, only shooting 27.2% from three and unlike Nassir Little, Langford’s shot mechanics are somewhat broken as he brings the ball way too far back almost touching his head. On defense he’ll often lose his man, but just like on offense if he is the on-ball defender Langford actually looks solid on that end.
Romeo Langford is not for the faint of heart and may drop out of the top-10 due to these red flags. It will take a team with good culture to help develop Langford into the player he should be. Its tough to gauge how much of his poor shooting was due to the thumb ligament he tore in his right hand, playing through it the final 26 games of the season. While he could have shut it down and been a higher pick due to lack of bad tape alone, its hard to completely say his character benefits much from this sacrifice given his effort level off the ball.
10. Rui Hachimura, F, Gonzaga
Age: 21.4 | Height: 6’8.5″ | Weight: 234 | Wingspan: 7’1.5″
Rui Hachimura, first of all, is a very fun name to say, draftable on that alone. But he does bring some game to the table, even if we’re not sure which chair he sits in. This past year he won the Julius Erving award for best small forward in college basketball, but is he one?
Hachimura is a physical specimen for sure. His height, weight and wingspan project more for a power forward than a small forward, which is what Rui might actually be a the next level. Hachimura is certainly a hard worker and aggressive on the court never shying away from contact. This works well for him in transition, unless of course he puts his head down and barrels into a charge. At his size, his shooting ability is also very impressive. Hachimura shot 41.7% from downtown a huge improvement over his previous year’s number of 21%, albeit on only 1 attempt per game. His mid-range shot is reliable with Rui able to pull-up and hit jumpers, or more commonly from the post from rip throughs and jabs. In the post, Rui is able to overpower smaller defenders and out-quick bigger ones.
However, despite being 21 years old Hachimura still does not have a great feel for the game. Picking up the game of basketball later in life in Japan there are still areas Rui has to improve to be an NBA starter. With the ball in his hands on offense, Rui suffers from tunnel vision often unable to hit wide open players on the perimeter, a huge detriment to modern day NBA offenses. Whatever team drafts him will need to be patient and hope he will learn the game with time and coaching.
11. Bol Bol, C, Oregon
Age: 19.6 | Height: 7’2.5″ | Weight: 208 | Wingspan: 7’7″
Without the injury, how high does Bol Bol go in this year’s draft? He very well might have been the 4th selection after the top-3 were solidified during the year. However, before we break down his talent level, the injury – a stress fracture in the foot of a 7’2.5″ player – are cause for a serious concerns for a player his size down the line.
Getting to his talent, Bol Bol represents a possible extension in the line of unicorns. Watching him both in transition and with the ball in his hands in spurts, the agility for his size is daunting. In addition, he was able to shoot at a high clip from beyond the arc this past season knocking down 52% of this threes on 2.8 attempts per game. Most of these shots were relatively uncontested, his slow release might make things difficult when teams start closing out on his jumper.
His overall numbers were also very impressive during his nine games at Oregon. In nearly 30 minutes per contest, Bol Bol averaged 21 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game. Bol’s freakish size combined with his agility and ability to run the floor make him a high ceiling type player. What will really unlock his potential at the next level is developing a quicker, higher release on his jump shot. That and staying healthy, which is still a major concern of mine.
12. Kevin Porter Jr, G/F, USC
Age: 19.1 | Height: 6’5.5″ | Weight: 213 | Wingspan: 6’9″
This is about where I’m comfortable taking Kevin Porter Jr. although perhaps a bit higher based on team needs. While Barrett captures most of the James Harden comparisons, they probably really belong here. Porter Jr. has a similar build, at 6’5.5″ and 213, and playstyle to Harden.
Porter Jr. has the talent to be a top-5 pick in this draft, but this is where players with his motor and character concerns end up falling, if not lower. When playing, Porter Jr. is athletic and strong with a repertoire of moves included a step-back jumper that looks eerily similar to James Harden. Porter Jr. is most comfortable playing with the ball in his hands whether in isolation or transition. He can lead a break in transition and has the speed and size to get to the rim with ease. Despite playing just 22 minutes per game, Porter Jr. was able to hit 41.2% of his threes on 3.2 attempts per game. Porter Jr. is clearly more of a scorer at this point and rebounder at this point but has shown flashes of passing ability.
Growing up in Seattle, Porter Jr. came from a rough background, which you can read about in a well chronicled Ringer article. He struggled at USC to feel part of the team and it was reflect on his limited time on the basketball court. Jamal Crawford is one of the people in his life who has taken him under his wing, a pretty good example of how to be successful in the NBA.
The sky is the limit for Porter Jr. if he can get his head on straight. Even if he is just a scorer off the bench, Porter Jr. would be prolific in that role. His upside is much more than that as a potential All-Star but there are real reasons he is not a top-10 pick.
13. Coby White, G, UNC
Age: 19.4 | Height: 6’4.75″ | Weight: 191 | Wingspan: 6’5″
Coby White was not seen as one of the top one and done prospects going into the college basketball season but things quickly changed. His frenetic playstyle and balanced, compact shooting mechanics have him as a likely lottery pick after his lone season at UNC.
Its not clear at this stage whether White is a true point or just a combo guard who ran the show for Roy Williams. What is clear is that White has good size for a combo guard and plays with a fire beneath him. Constantly engaged, and sometimes over-engaged, White could stand to learn how to decelerate and play with change of pace from time to time. His fast paced style will work best in a system that constantly wants to get up and down moving the ball, a Mike D’Antoni offense would suit him perfectly.
While White has good size for his position, he does not have exceptional strength or bounce. This oftentimes led to him having trouble finishing at the rim after incurring contact. White’s shot is very quick and combat but the release point is a bit low and could get bother by NBA defenders. He’s also a bit streaky from out there shooting 35.3%, but can hit tough shots equally off the dribble and catch. At the next level, I see White as being more of frenetic bench scoring guard than a lead guard but he can definitely develop into that over time.
14. Sekou Doumbouya, F, Limoges CSP
Age: 18.5 | Height: 6’9″ | Weight: 210 | Wingspan: 6’11”
Sekou Doumbouya is widely regarded as one of the top two international prospects in this year’s draft. Perhaps in light of the recent Finals run by the Raptors, Doumbouya looks like the lite version of Pascal Siakam.
Doumbouya shows good speed and fluidity for his size in transition. He has a high motor and is willing to mix it up on the glass and in the post. Doumbouya is still only 18 years old which would make him the youngest player in the lottery if he gets selected here. Doumbouya has a good physical profile to be a good defender and averaged 0.7 steals and blocks per game in just 19 minutes of action for Limoges. From the outside, Doumbouya shot 34.3% and didn’t look horrible doing so. His mechanics look solid, if not for a slight hitch in his shot.
Hard to translate Sekou to the NBA as he is still a young and raw prospect. After getting past the more NBA ready and potential laden prospects from the college ranks Doumbouya is worth a shot as he has the mold of a solid power forward in the NBA.
15. Jaxson Hayes, C, Texas
Age: 19.1 | Height: 6’11.5″ | Weight: 219 | Wingspan: 7’3.5″
A year ago, Jaxson Hayes wasn’t even expected to enter the 2019 Draft, let alone be discussed as a potential lottery pick. However, in high school he grew from 6’7″ to nearly seven feet tall, retaining most of his athleticism.
At this stage, Hayes is extremely raw on the offensive end. His main value add comes from the lob part of the lob/rim protector moniker. He is very athletic for his size and length, easily able to finish lob passes and others around the rim. His shot selection and finishing ability were shown by the fact that he shot 72.8% from the floor last year. Obviously to be more of a threat Hayes will be need to be able to develop some reliable jump hooks around the rim, but he projects a Clint Capela type center. On the defensive end, Hayes blocked 2.2 shots per game in just 22 minutes per game. He has the length and athleticism to be a true rim protector at the next level.
While he has good height and length, Hayes has a somewhat limited frame and putting on healthy muscle may be challenging for him. Hayes needs to stay out of foul trouble as that was a major reason why he only played 22 minutes per game last year. Hayes is still fairly raw at this stage but has the athleticism and physical profile to be a true lob threat and rim protector.