And we’re back! Another NBA season kicks off in just a few short hours and there are plenty of storylines to keep fans enraged and engaged. Hopefully this is the last year when the NBA champion isn’t a complete given (Draymond, Klay, KD – if you’re reading this, can one or two of you sign with another team in free agency… please?). For the first time in a long time, the East is a wide-open pick ‘em. But even beyond that, there’s some fascinating young talent in the East. While the West has always been the vastly superior conference, something that will only continue this year, the East is positioned well for the early 2020’s when some of the young talent grows into their full potential.
With that, let’s dive right in to our predictions for the Eastern Conference playoff teams:
Toronto Raptors
Starting lineup: Kyle Lowry, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas
The skinny: All’s fair in love, war, and basketball. While there was some initial backlash on trading Toronto’s most beloved star (note the lack of “super”) since Vince Carter, trading for Kawhi Leonard was really a no brainer for Masai Ujiri. He’s been waiting to make significant changes for a while now, and he was finally afforded the opportunity. Not to mention, the Spurs threw in Danny Green like he was a salary dump or a fringe player – both of which are far from the truth. Danny Green has an expiring $10M contract this year and despite a rough year for the Spurs last year (by their exceptional standards), Green still ranked 6th among shooting guards in DRPM. Sure, he’s 31 and he may fall off a cliff at some point, but it’s not like he relies on athleticism or speed to do what he does best – 3’s and D. Since we’re already touching on it, let’s get into the stats.
Stats: As alluded to above, I’m real high on the Raptors defense, and team overall, this year. Raptors finished 5th in defensive efficiency in the NBA last year, behind Boston and Philadelphia. I think that bumps all the way up to #2 this year (#1 in the East), with Utah getting the top spot overall. Their defense through the starting 1-3 positions is unrivaled, as all other teams have at least one player with a gaping hole in those spots (Kyrie, Redick, Curry, Harden, etc.). The Raptors have a new coach this year, and it’s fascinating to think if they would have kept Casey had they known about the Kawhi deal beforehand. Usually a new coach means a relatively slow start for a team as they learn new offensive and defensive principles, but the Raptors internally promoted Nick Nurse, someone who’s been with the team since 2013 and was the primary driver behind the Raptors modernized offense last year (from 22nd in 3PA in 2016-2017 to 3rd in NBA) that led them to be #1 in offensive rating in the East. Raptors fell just short of 60 wins last year, I think they get it this year.
Prediction: 62-20
Boston Celtics
Starting lineup: Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford
The skinny: Any Brad Stevens coached team is going to be a scary matchup, but this roster is particularly devastating. Hayward’s injury last year accelerated the growth rate for both Brown and Tatum, and the Celtics may very well be better off for it. Brown is a legitimate two-way multi-positional player, and Tatum is already considered untouchable. A conversation with the Spurs over a Tatum for Kawhi deal was considered a non-starter, and while that partially had to do with contracts, it still says a lot about how high the Celtics are on the 20-year-old kid. Kyrie recently gave assurances that he wants to re-sign with Boston. Something that Celtic fans no doubt loved to hear but will certainly cost them some depth. Assuming Big Al opts in to his final year $30M salary, that brings the Celtics 2019-2020 payroll to $140M before discussing the possibility of bringing Rozier or Morris back. However, Boston’s not afraid to pay the tax, and when the biggest problem on the team is how much in the luxury tax threshold they want to go, that usually means they’re in a pretty good place. Oh, and just for fun, Danny Ainge has Sacramento’s 2019 first round pick. Thanks, Bryan.
Stats: As touched on above, Celtics finished 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency last year – just a hair ahead of the Utah Jazz. For as much acclaim as Stevens gets for his wizardry in drawing up out of bounds plays, the Celtics’ defense is really what makes this team elite. Boston ranked 18th in offensive efficiency last year and 23rd in pace. I expect those numbers to tick up a bit this year given the youth in the starting lineup, particularly Tatum at the 4. Celtics ranked 24th in transition points last year and with the young lineup they have (outside of Horford), I also expect that to bump up to middle of the pack, which should increase their overall offensive efficiency into top-12 territory.
Prediction: 59-23
Philadelphia 76ers
Starting lineup: Ben Simmons, JJ Reddick, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid
The skinny: Despite some odd combinations Brett Brown may try with the starting and second half lineups, I expect this would be the lineup he will use to end most games. Markelle Fultz is sure to get plenty of minutes with many of these guys, and their depth goes even further with the likes of Amir Johnson, TJ McConnell, and intriguing rookie Zhaire Smith coming off the bench. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sixers make a big-time trade at the deadline for an impact player that they wouldn’t be able to afford in free agency. All those years of infinite Sixers cap space is about to come to an end next summer when Ben Simmons and Dario Saric are eligible for extensions. A trade for a player this season would allow them to absorb the incoming player’s salary into their cap space while using their Bird rights to re-sign Simmons and Saric in the offseason.
Stats: #1 in the NBA in rebounding rate, #3 in defensive efficiency, and #4 in pace. Those are stats that normally do not correlate with one another but the Sixers somehow managed to walk that line. In large part due to Ben Simmons’ rebounding prowess (yes, it helps that he’s 6’10”) and Embiid’s ability to bring the ball coast to coast. People may forget that the Sixers finished the regular season on a 16 (!) game winning streak. The most impressive stat of them all, in this writer’s opinion? The average age of the lienup above plus Fultz (the probable top-6 players in terms of minutes played) is 21.8 years old. This team is built to go to not only grow together but stay together. They should be a top 3 finish in the East with the Celtics for at least the next half decade.
Prediction: 55-37
Milwaukee Bucks
Starting lineup: Eric Bledsoe, Malcom Brogdon, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
The skinny: I am higher on the Bucks this year than most. That’s because of 3 primary factors: 1) the Bucks’ issues last year seemed easily fixable, 2) Coach Bud is the perfect coach to fix them, and 3) Giannis is about to have the most dominant Giannis season on record (obligatory injury qualifier here). If you want an in depth look on the Bucks’ style of play last year vs Coach Bud’s coaching style, take a read of an excellent piece at the Ringer. For now, suffice it to say that other than Jabari Parker, who is obviously a major injury risk, the Bucks lost no key players while adding shooters in Brook Lopez, Ersan Ilyasova, Pat Connaughton, and drafting Donte DiVincenzo. This spacing, especially at the big positions with Brook and Ersan, should improve significantly for Giannis this year. Nobody took more attempts at the rim last year that Giannis (9.3 per game), and he finished top 5 in FG% at the rim for qualifying players. With defenders having to stay honest on their shooters, there’s no reason not to think those attempts move up into the double digits. And while we’re at it, I’ll throw in that Giannis is my MVP pick this year. Went back and forth with him and AD, but the West is a gauntlet, and I think a 4 seed in the East and a slight bump in the numbers he put up last year will be enough to lock it down.
Stats: Bucks ranked #7 last year in points per possession in isolations and postups. Unfortunately for them, those also happen to be among the least efficient plays in basketball (0.9 PPP for each). Expect that to change this year in a big way. Coach Bud comes from the Popovich coaching tree and knows that ball and player movement is the way the league has gone. In fact, the Hawks ranked second in passes per game last year. While the Bucks may not finish that high in the coach’s first year, expect them to be much higher than the 24th they ranked last year. As for player movement, Giannis ranked 7th in the NBA in total distance covered last year, so more off-ball movement shouldn’t be a problem for Giannis, who will probably have less ballhandling responsibility than he had last year.
Prediction: 52-30
Indiana Pacers
Starting lineup: Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner
The skinny: The Pacers surprised everyone last year with Victor Oladipo playing at a legitimate All-NBA level and carrying the team to 48 wins. While I expect a slight regression from them this year, it’s clear the Pacers are here to stay in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They took care of their first order of business and signed Myles Turner to a team-friendly extension. Now that the Pacers have Turner and Oladipo locked in through the 2020-2021 season, they can focus on acquiring pieces to build around their solid infrastructure. As Bobby Marks details, the Pacers can create up to $47M in cap space in the offseason – more than enough money to sign quality players around Dipo and Turner. And before anyone says that no free agent will sign in Indiana, just remember that the Pacers already have their superstar. They don’t need to swing for the fences in free agency. Not to mention, they have all their draft picks going forward, so if anyone becomes available in the trade market, they could be active, especially if combined with any of the 4 players making $10M+ or more in expiring contracts. Potential darkhorse candidate for a Jimmy Butler trade??
Stats: Part of the reason for the Pacers’ success last year was their ability to close out close games. The Pacers ranked 6th in the NBA in win percentage in clutch games last year per NBA.com – better than Philadelphia and Toronto. While some of that can certainly be chalked up to good coaching and execution, a certain regression to the mean can be reasonably expected this year. One area the Pacers dominated last year was in transition, which they ranked 5th in the NBA in PPP. This is obviously largely due to Dipo’s ability to finish in the open court (he finished 7th in the NBA in transition possessions). To really take their offense to the next level, the Pacers will need to take more 3’s. They ranked 9th in the NBA in attempts but 26th in number of attempts. Time to let ‘em fly!
Prediction: 47-35
Miami Heat
Starting lineup: Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson, James Johnson, Hassan Whiteside
The skinny: What a steep drop in quality from the Pacers to here. The Heat are probably the next best team in the East solely based on Spoelstra’s playcalling, their quasi-deep bench, and, of course, the outside chance they acquire Jimmy Butler at some point this year. The Heat finished with 44 wins last year and managed to bring back just about everyone. They also played in more close games than any other team. While that is usually a recipe for an uptick in wins, I still have trouble seeing how this roster fits together as currently constituted. The only player I see significantly improving this year is Bam Adebayo, who can very well turn into a solid NBA player. This is obviously a make or break season for Justise Winslow, who has been nothing short of a bust at this point in his career.
Stats: The ageless Dwyane Wade. While he could have hung them up in the offseason, he elected to come back for one more rodeo. And while Father Time is certainly not on his side, there’s no denying he had a positive impact on returning to the Heat. The Heat were 24th in offensive efficiency last season prior to the deadline. Afterwards, they ranked 16th. More impressively, they went from 20th in net rating to 9th. While that is unsustainable for the Heat over a full 82 game season, hovering around the 13th – 16th range will be enough for them to be a playoff team in the East.
Prediction: 43-39
Washington Wizards
Starting lineup: John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr, Markieff Morris, Dwight Howard
The skinny: At this point in the East, everyone is guessing on the last two playoff spots. The Wizards are a popular pick, and rightfully so based on the talent they have. Clearly, I am picking them here as well, but it is tough to pick a team that so openly despises playing with one another. They don’t even try to hide it either, the stories have been very very very public. In trying to solve one problem (i.e. trading Gortat), they may have acquired a bigger one in Dwight Howard. Dwight has soured his welcome for every single team he has played for. Literally every single one. And going into a locker room that already has this drama is sure to only make it worse. Still, the Wizards have John Wall, a true superstar when healthy (and trying), a top-3 shooting guard in the East in Beal, and a solid albeit overpaid small forward in Otto Porter. After trotting out a frontcourt of Nene and Gortat for the last 57 years, the Wizards finally have a new look at both positions with Markieff Morris and Dwight Howard. On paper, they should make the playoffs. And if they don’t, or if they have another uninspiring first round exit, look for them to try and trade one or both of Beal and Porter. Why not Wall? Because he’s untouchable. Not to Washington, but to every other team. Wall is currently slated to make just under $47M in the 2022-2023 season. Even as someone who likes Wall, I gotta say… yikes.
Stats: It should come as no surprise that a team with Wall at the helm is a great transition team. The Wizards ranked 4th in PPP in transition, behind only Golden State, Houston, and… Charlotte. How’d they get there? Regardless, they better hope their success continues there because they’ve been pretty middling elsewhere overall. 15th in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which is kind of impressive in its own way. If Washington wants to be more effective on offense, they must (stop me if you’ve heard this before) shoot more 3’s! They ranked 23rd in the NBA last year in 3-point attempts. And I’m not blindly saying that more 3’s leads to more efficiency (even if it kinda does). The Wizards have all the right pieces for a 3-point barrage offense to work. They ranked 4th in the NBA in 3P% and 2nd in the NBA on catch and shoot 3’s (1st if you don’t count the Team USA Warriors). Otto Porter shot 43.5% on catch and shoot 3’s. Wall and Beal were each at 42.2%. But in order to take advantage of the sharpshooters they have, both the ball and the players must MOVE. The Wizards did neither, ranking 20th in passes per game and 22nd in offensive distance travelled as a team. If the Wizards embrace the new Steph Curry/analytics era NBA, they can be a pretty good team in the East. If not… well, they’re still probably a playoff team.
Prediction: 42-40
Cleveland Cavaliers
Starting lineup: George Hill, JR Smith, Rodney Hood, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson
The skinny: The Cleveland playoff streak continues! Much has been made about LeBron leaving the Cavs. Fair, given that LeBron is the best player in the NBA. But just because he left does not mean there aren’t some interesting pieces remaining on the team. Outside of their starting lineup, they have an interesting assortment of role players in rookie Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, Kyle Korver, Larry Nance, and Cedi Osman. And sure, half of them will probably be traded by the trade deadline in the hopes of recovering some of the assets they blew while they were in win now mode with LeBron. But the core of the team is still better than the bottom half of the East! Sexton has a chance to play the Donovan Mitchell role with this offense and has better offensive teammates to help him when defenses begin to adjust (a luxury Mitchell did not have in the playoffs). The Cavs can match up to the Pistons’ size, run a deeper bench than the Hornets, and are just flat out better than any of the remaining teams in the East.
Stats: The applicability of the last season’s stats is a little difficult to quantify given the MVP-size hole left in their roster. LeBron had a usage rate of just over 30% and improved their offensive rating by a margin of +8.3 when he was on the court. He also spent much of the regular season on cruise control and played some lethargic defense in those mid-season games. When LeBron went to the bench, the Cavs offense didn’t look like it knew what to do with the ball. That is sure to change this season, as I expect to see more ball movement and a far more merit-based offense, with Kevin Love as the fulcrum. Let’s make one thing clear – as of this moment, Kevin Love is the best full-time power forward in the East (I have to use the “full-time” qualifier because of positionless players like Giannis). Love had a 3-point resurgence last year, increasing his percentage to 41.5%. Expect his 12.4 attempts per game to go up to Timberwolves-era Love at around 16 – 18. Their team is obviously far from perfect. But in the East, that’s good enough.
Prediction: 41-41