This offseason, Jared and Rob attempt to predict what happens during one of the most notoriously unpredictable weeks in the NBA.
Where will LeBron James end up?
Jared:
The key date here for LeBron James is June 29th. That is the last day he can decide whether to opt-in or out of his $35,607,969 player option for the 2018-19 season. Opting in would allow James the opportunity to join a broader range of teams via trade, namely those over the salary cap. Teams like the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics essentially need LeBron to opt-in so they could execute a normal trade with Cleveland by matching salaries. If James opts out, a sign-and-trade is the only way for him to move to a team over the cap, but only if his salary doesn’t put that team over the tax apron of $129,971,850. Given that a maxed LeBron James would start slightly lower than his $35,607,969 player option next year, that virtually eliminates the above three teams without some drastic salary dumping.
If he opts-out, his list of viable destination shrinks. That would pretty much limit James to teams that have requisite cap space or returning home to Cleveland. Of teams with space, Philadelphia and Los Angeles have emerged as the two best looking scenarios. LA has space for two max deals and features a promising young core (Kuzma, Ingram, Ball) to play alongside, or dangle as trade bait for potentially a third All-Star. It represents LeBron the best combination of lifestyle/future branding and ability to win on the court. Philadelphia meanwhile has Rookie of the Year Ben Simmons to go with NBA All-Defense members, Robert Covington and Joel Embiid. Not to mention Dario Saric and possibly even a resurrected Markelle Fultz. Philadelphia doesn’t need to sell LeBron on what ifs, they already have enough talent to get to the NBA Finals.
It’s hard to fight the impending notion that LeBron will end up in Los Angeles, but I’m going to hold out hope he chooses the best opportunity to win. James would have to decide this before his player option expires Friday night, but choosing the Rockets gives LeBron the best chance to win pairing him with NBA MVP James Harden and 8-time All-NBA Chris Paul. For a Rockets team that looks like they could have beaten the Warriors if Paul didn’t go down at the end of game 5, James is the piece to put them over the top.
Rob:
It wouldn’t be right to start with any other question because, just like in 2014, the NBA offseason doesn’t start until the best player in the league decides where he’s going. So the question isn’t only WHERE is LeBron going, but WHEN. In 2014, he didn’t announce his decision to sign with the Cavs until July 11th. Thankfully, it isn’t expected to take as long this year.
Now as for the “where” of it all, despite the supposed “good dialogue” between the Cavs and LeBron, it remains unlikely he re-signs with Cleveland. There’s an outside chance he re-ups on one of his classic 1+1 deals (one year deal with a player option on the second year) in order to see what the lay of the lands look like next offseason when Kawhi and whole bunch of other superstars are free agents.
The candidates that come up most in discussions are the Rockets, Sixers, and Lakers. The Rockets would have to move too many mountains (even for Morey) to get a deal done. The Sixers would take a great fit for LeBron due to their skilled youth and conducive offense – the Sixers comfortably led the league in passes per game last year, which would surely help ease the playmaking load LeBron had to carry on a nightly basis with the Cavs team. It would also keep LeBron in the East.
Unfortunately, the specter of the purple and gold looms too large for LeBron to pass up. Even without Kawhi, I think it’s most likely that LeBron ends up on the Lakers with PG-13 or another star player by his side – leaving the East wide open for conquering for the first time in nearly a decade.
What is going to happen with Kawhi Leonard?
Jared:
This is honestly something I never thought I’d see. Two years ago, in an age of season long retirement tours, Tim Duncan announced his retirement in a way only Tim Duncan could. The Spurs were losing an all-time great but seemed to be in a good position with the freshly minted All-NBA Kawhi Leonard ready to the carry the torch. Leonard was cast as the perfect leader for San Antonio. The one star who kept quiet and worked hard. The perfect Spur.
Now here we are two years later. Leonard and the Spurs Front Office are embroiled in a stalemate over his future. San Antonio wants to reconcile with Leonard and make him the face of the franchise he was meant to be, but Kawhi and his camp want out. With only one year left on his contract, the Spurs would be rolling the dice trying to hold on to Leonard while convincing him to stay.
Expect the Spurs to take their time with this. There is no rush for them to make a move right away. The market for a soon-to-be 27-year old All-NBA player, who many consider the best perimeter defender in the NBA, is not drying up anytime soon. Having said that, if the Spurs do ultimately decide to trade Leonard, it will reportedly be out East.
Danny Ainge has been stockpiling his war chest, waiting for a player of this caliber to make his way onto the market. Are there risks? Sure. There’s the quad injury, which no one knows for certain, and the one-year contract. But how often does a 27-year old, top -5 NBA player hit the trade market? If there was ever a time for Ainge to reach into the cupboards, it’s now. The Celtics have enough ammunition to acquire Leonard, without impacting their 3-4 best players. Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier and the Sacramento 2019 first (Top 1 protected) is an attractive enough package to get the deal done. That would give Boston a starting five of Irving, Hayward, Tatum, Leonard and Horford. Legitimately an All-Star at every position. If San Antonio can’t hold onto Leonard, expect him to be wearing green next season.
Rob:
The Spurs best options with Kawhi are the following (in order):
- A Pop-Leonard heart to heart that leads to a LaMarcus Aldridge-like resurgence in his desire to stay with the Spurs
- See how attached the Celtics are to Jaylen Brown and what else could be thrown into the deal to make salaries work (plus a pick or two)
- A deal with the Sixers similar to what I outlined above and hope shooting savant Chip Engelland can resuscitate Fultz’s abysmal shooting stroke
- Go into the season with Kawhi and make him play out the rest of his contract (until one of the above trades or anything passable comes along)
Bar none, the most entertaining option would be #4. That is what the Cavs should have done with Kyrie, except it will be infinitely funnier with Kawhi and his expressionless yet depressed look that he always has. I can already see the First Take debates on Kawhi and what his blank expression means for the Spurs franchise. Unfortunately, I don’t think #4 happens because it never happens. And I don’t know why – make the players finish out their contract! Make him turn down a supermax deal – the supermax is undefeated when presented (currently 4-0)!
More likely, the Spurs trade Kawhi for either option 2 or 3 above. This gets Kawhi out of the East and probably the best haul possible for a player likely to bolt in a year. Given that I think the Celtics opt out of including Brown in the deal, Brett Brown’s old Spurs ties, and the fact that Kawhi rehabbed with the Philly’s Chief Medical Officer, I’d say the Sixers are most likely.
What is the 76ers’ plan going into this offseason?
Jared:
LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James. It’s all Brett Brown and Joel Embiid have talked about since their season ended. With enough cap space for a max deal this off-season (sans Jerryd Bayless), the Sixers will be on the hunt for an All-Star. There are several high-level stars on the market (LeBron, George, Kawhi) but all of them feel just out of Philadelphia’s reach. I actually believe the Sixers have a better shot at LeBron than advertised, but chances are he will go elsewhere. George seems pigeonholed between LA and OKC for possible destinations. And as deep as Hinkie (and now Brown) have stocked the Sixers’ war chest, it’s still trumped by the established young talent Boston can offer for Kawhi. Perhaps a deal built around Markelle Fultz and two firsts entices San Antonio. They can absorb Kawhi and even another contract into their cap space directly instead of having to find salary matches. But chances are they will miss out on all three.
So that leaves Philadelphia with the best of the rest. Unfortunately for them, that means mostly centers (Cousins, Jordan, Whiteside), where Joel Embiid currently resides. To get quality talent, at positions they need, the Sixers may need to get creative. Restricted free agency offers a unique opportunity this year. It’s possible either Marcus Smart or Zach Lavine could be gotten for the max. If they strike out there, Philly will be confined to unrestricted free agents and trades. The obvious move to me would be to add Will Barton in free agency. Gives them another 3-and-D type player to surround Simmons and further solidifies their starting five. Depending on where LeBron goes, they may be able absorb the contract of a decent player like Eric Gordon.
This is a unique year for the 76ers because Simmons, Fultz and Saric are all still on their rookie deals. They should be aggressive in acquiring talent or they may lose this opportunity.
Rob:
The Sixers are going to give signing LeBron the good old college try. Unfortunately for the Sixers, LeBron didn’t go to college and I don’t think he goes to the Sixers either (although from a basketball perspective, he should). Assuming the King signs elsewhere, that leaves the Sixers with approximately $30M in cap space and one of the most valuable first round picks in the league. They may turn their attention toward Kawhi and see what the Spurs appetite is for a trade. A package of Fultz, Covington, Saric and the Miami 1st round pick could be the best non-Celtic offer the Spurs could hope to get.
Otherwise, I could see the Sixers essentially sitting this free agency out and waiting until the 2019 free agent crop, which, as mentioned above, is full of big names for Brett Brown to go “star chasing” after. They would essentially do what they did last offseason – load up on one year rentals, hope everyone stays healthy, and use their young and cheap core (minus Embiid who will now makes $25M+ a year) to lure max free agents. That will be the last offseason they will be able to do it as Simmons and Saric will be eligible for extensions.
The flexibility that the Sixers have is the envy of nearly every team in the league. As long as they don’t force the issue, they should be able to compete for a championship in the near future no matter what moves they do.
Who are the most intriguing restricted free agents?
Jared:
Clint Capela – The 24-year old Capella has emerged as a top-10 NBA center and possibly the best rim protector/rim runner/lob target combination in the league. Expect the Rockets to do everything in their power to keep him. However, he is the top RFA on many team’s radars and will almost certainly demand the max. The Rockets may have to make some sacrifices to keep him.
Kyle Anderson – Anderson is probably the most under the radar RFA at this point. The 24-year old, 6’9” forward is no flash and all substance. Nicknamed Slo-Mo, Anderson is the epitome of methodical. His minutes and role increased this year in Leonard’s absence. He brings some playmaking and defense, while being a respectable shooter. The Spurs will look to retain him, but he’s definitely not a lock to be matched if the number is high enough.
Rob: In terms of premier restricted free agents, I think the list is (in no particular order) – Clint Capela, Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, Zach Lavine, and Jusuf Nurkic. Of those, Capela, Lavine, and Nurkic are boring because I think they’re locks to stay on their current teams for varying reasons.
Gordon is a complete wild card, especially given the Magic’s ambivalent comments towards re-signing him and his stated desire for the max. Gun to my head, I don’t think he re-signs with the Magic. I could see the Kings competing with themselves and overpaying Gordon to a four-year max contract. The Suns are also an intriguing option given their youth (Gordon is still only 22 years old), but they may be saving their cap space for the inevitable Devin Booker max extension.
Randle is as good as gone. Whether or not LA lands one (or more) of their coveted superstars this offseason, they won’t sign Randle to a contract that will eat up their cap space for the next few years. As far as destinations go, Randle is an intriguing young big man who has the misfortune of coming up for a renewed contract during an offseason most teams are looking to shed money rather than take more on. He will end up taking far less than he expected to get but I could see him end up on a team like the Mavericks who have a coach that will be able to maximize his unique skillset.
All that is said without even mentioning Marcus Smart, who despite his shooting numbers, is an advanced stats darling and may be gettable given the future luxury tax reckoning the Celtics will have to face in a few short seasons.
The restricted free agent crowd is the best in recent memory and, unlike past years, due to the “financial crunch” of the NBA, many of these players are very attainable for a team willing to pay even slightly below market value.
Who is your favorite under the radar team going into this off-season?
Jared:
The Dallas Mavericks. They already made the biggest headline moves of the summer so far, nabbing Luka Doncic in a draft day trade that saw them move up to #3 from #5. As part of the trade, the Mavericks parted with a 2019 top-5 protected first round pick. Reportedly the Mavericks chose sending a first instead of swapping Wes Matthews for Kent Bazemore, which would have added $19,269,662 to their 2019 salary. Given the increased value placed on first round picks, and the Mavericks’ current state of affairs, this decision is surprising. It may give us clues into their plans for the rest of the off-season.
Going this route not only frees up more cap space for 2019, but also maintains flexibility in the current off-season since Matthews’ contract is expiring. It’s no secret that the Mavs have been on the prowl for a center ever since they parted ways with Tyson Chandler. The 2015 snub by DeAndre Jordan, after originally agreeing to a deal with Dallas, will forever remain a cautionary tale for the free agent moratorium. Ironically, Jordan is one of the top free agents again this off-season. Expect the Mavericks, with their $24,887,149 in cap space after relinquishing cap holds, to pursue the wide range of available centers starting with Clint Capela and DeMarcus Cousins, ending with Hassan Whiteside and possibly even… DeAndre Jordan.
Rob:
For all the talk of the Lakers, Sixers, Celtics, and Thunder, I think the team that could make the most noise in the offseason that no one is talking about is the defending #1 seed in the East, Toronto Raptors. You have a team that got swept in the playoffs after a nearly 60 win season, fired their coach, and had a GM outright say (okay Woj said it, but that’s just as good) that no one on the roster is untouchable. The market might be cold for Lowry given the $93M he is owed over the next 3 years at the most loaded position in the league, but guys like Derozan & Valanciunas, plus young guys like Delon Wright and OG Anunoby, could make this a firesale that the league would happy to take part in.
Derozan is the best player on that list, and his talents would translate to many NBA squads now that he has started to embrace the 3 point shot more, but OG Anunoby could be the real prize for teams looking to mold a potential star player. Of course, that would mean the team would probably have to absorb Lowry’s dreadful contract as well, but for teams willing to sit out the next few seasons due to Warrior dominance, that could work out just fine.
How about this – remember all of 2 summers ago when it was whispered that known Drew League dominator and LA native, DeMar Derozan might be interested in a homecoming with the Lakers? Could a similar instance happen here if a Kawhi deal can’t be reached and PG-13 decides to stay with the Thunder? It would be hard for the Lakers to swing a deal that didn’t involve Ball or Ingram since Luol Deng’s contract would most likely have to be included for matching purposes. But if they were willing to do that, would that be enough for LeBron to decide to take his talents to LA?
It goes to show just how large the shadow LeBron casts is over the rest of the league that almost every move is at least tangentially affected by where he is going. So while he is widely expected to opt out by the June 29 deadline, and free agency begins on July 1, don’t expect any fireworks until the King has spoken.