It seems like only yesterday the Golden State Warriors were popping bottles of champagne to cap off one of the most dominant playoff runs in NBA history. Maybe that’s because the upcoming NBA season starts 2 full weeks earlier than normal, maybe it’s because the offseason was chock-full of news and storylines, or maybe a certain writer had a few too many cold cruisers over the summer break. Whatever the reason, the NBA is back!
While the West is sure to be a slaughterhouse with the peak-dynasty Warriors, ageless Spurs, reloaded Rockets, all-in Thunder, and a few other teams that would be a 1 – 4 seed in the opposite conference, the East is wide open. A year after Kevin Durant shocked the world by leaving a pseudo-contender for a juggernaut, Kyrie shocked the world by doing the exact opposite.
Without further ado, let’s preview each of the Leastern… sorry, Eastern Conference teams:
Boston Celtics
Starting lineup: Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris, Al Horford
The skinny: No team won more than the 53-win Celtics in the East. Brown, Rozier and Smart will undoubtedly improve after another (in Brown’s case, his first) year of NBA experience under their belts. The Celtics also made headlines when acquiring big-shot taker, flat-earth believer Kyrie Irving in a blockbuster deal with the Cavs. And while the Celts obviously got a stud in Kyrie, let’s not forget that Isaiah Thomas played well enough to finish 5th in MVP voting. Kyrie has some big shoes to fill in Boston in a completely different offense than he has ever played in his career. To help him carry the burden, the Celtics also added Gordon Hayward. A great duo on paper, but will it translate to the court? The two certainly have their deficiencies.
Stats: The stats with Kyrie on the floor and LeBron sitting have been as well-documented as they are horrendous. But more generally, his overall defensive RPM of -2.30 ranked 72nd out of 83 point guards last season. Fortunately for the Celtics, that is actually an improvement over IT who finished dead last with -3.89. Hayward is an average defender nearly breaking even in DRPM. More importantly, Brad Stevens knows how to hide his players deficiencies, finishing 12th in the league in defense efficiency last season despite IT’s significant playing time. He will have a harder time doing that again this season given the depth they gave up to get Hayward, but it’s never a good idea to doubt the boy genius.
Prediction: 56-26
Cleveland Cavaliers
Starting lineup: Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Jae Crowder, Kevin Love
The skinny: The health concerns to Isaiah Thomas aside, the Cavs have as good as roster as they could hope for after losing Kyrie Irving. LeBron will need Thomas’s shot-creating ability come playoff time, but in the meantime, having his partner-in-crime in Wade back on his squad will be a huge offensive burden off his shoulders. The starting lineup, recently announced by Coach Lue, is interesting. While offensively, this lineup looks unstoppable, it looks like it can definite be exploited on the defensive end. Beyond the fact that, defensively, Love at center has never worked for the Cavs before, moving Crowder to power forward negates his perimeter defensive skills – skills that could have been used to give LeBron a breather on defense while Crowder guards the best opposing wing. We’ve seen LeBron get gassed early in Finals games against the Warriors for this exact reason. Crowder may be the best wing defender LeBron has played with in his career! Fortunately for the Cavs, they have all season to figure this out, and a soft Eastern Conference to figure out which lineup works best without sacrificing too many wins.
Stats: The key stat to watch for this season will be usage rate. Isaiah Thomas finished 5th in the NBA least season among qualified players, LeBron finished 11th. While that is right around where LeBron will likely continue to be, that is much too high for Thomas, especially given his injury. Enter Kevin Love. Love’s usage rate last season trailed the likes of Harrison Barnes & Derrick Rose. That has to go up this season. The other stat to keep an eye out for with the Cavs is their rebounding rate, particularly their offensive rebounding rate, in which they finished 19th and 20th, respectively. With LeBron, Love, Crowder, Thompson, and an expert board-sniffing guard in Wade, the Cavs should focus on abusing teams on the glass.
Prediction: 53-29
Toronto Raptors
Starting lineup: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, CJ Miles, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas
The skinny: Besides the gaping hole at small forward (sorry, CJ), this starting 5 is able to compete with any team in the league. Unfortunately, that hasn’t always translated to wins when it counts. The Raptors have elected time and time again to keep their core together, banking on continuity and familiarity to drive wins. And there might be something to be said for that. In a league with shorter contracts and more power amongst the player, it is genuinely hard to keep a talented group together. The Raptors managed to continue that this offseason by signing Ibaka to a reasonable deal, dumping Carroll who never gelled with their offense, and drafting a player in OG Aunoby who could really turn into a talented wing player in the league. They still may not have enough firepower to get past the first 2 teams mentioned, but sometimes all you need is a little luck.
Stats: Toronto continues to put up beautiful numbers in offensive efficiency, finishing in the top-6 in each of the last 3 seasons. Their defensive efficiency has also steadily and substantially improved over the same period of time, finishing 23rd in the league in the 2014-2015 season, 11th in 2015-2016, and 8th last season. For a coach who was on the hot seat early in his tenure, Dwane Casey has really got his players to buy into what they built in the T-Dot. They are a 3-D wing player away from being able to finally get over their LeBron-sized hurdle. They hoped that player would be Carroll, but unless OG develops quicker than anyone projects, they will have to look elsewhere before the trade deadline.
Prediction: 50-32
Washington Wizards
Starting lineup: John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat
The skinny: John Wall put himself in the superstar class of the league for any NBA fans who were slow on the uptick, averaging 27 & 10 in the playoffs. Bradley Beal put together the healthiest season of his career and put up solid shooting numbers. Otto Porter had a big leap year and was compensated (or over-compensated) accordingly. The big man positions are where the Wizards will need to upgrade if they ever want to truly be considered contenders, especially with Morris’s injury. A player like LaMarcus Aldridge could be a name to keep an eye on if he considers to sour in San Antonio. The Denver Nuggets are also a possible candidate with their glutton of big men. An acquisition will need to be made for this team to have a chance to win the Eastern Conference.
Stats: Washington finished 9th in offensive efficiency last season and 20th in defensive efficiency. It’s easy to say that the Wizards need to be at least be league average to have a shot in advancing past the first round, but it still holds true. With Morris injured to start the season, this could be an opportunity for Kelly Oubre Jr. to work his way into the starting lineup, where he is better suited due to less of a scoring burden that is placed on him. His 6’7 height and 7’1 wingspan make it easy to think he and Porter will slide between the 3/4 positions, but Oubre has yet to prove he’s the 3 & D player the Wizards have been looking for since they lost Trevor Ariza. On offense, Oubre needs to either improve or limit his 3-point shooting (while 36.7% looks good on paper, only 5 players who shot at least 150 threes last season shot a lower percentage than Oubre), and on defense he must cut down his fouls (6.0 per 100 possessions). Barring a huge leap from Oubre, or an aforementioned trade, the Wizards still find themselves a notch below Boston & Cleveland.
Prediction: 48-34
Milwaukee Bucks
Starting lineup: Malcom Brogdon, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, John Henson, Thon Maker
The skinny: The Bucks rebuild started in 2013 with the drafting of Giannis Antetokounmpo, a then-unknown international commodity more famous for his nickname “the Greek Freak” than his on-court play, as shown from his #15 selection – behind the likes of Trey Burke, Kelly Olynyk, and others. Recently he has been voted by GMs as the best international player, and the 2nd most popular pick to be the player a franchise starting today would build around. The Bucks went with what they thought was a more sure-fire pick the following season and drafted Jabari Parker, who has unfortunately been littered with injuries throughout his short career. After whiffing on Rashad Vaughn, the Bucks went with another gamble in Thon Maker. While his measurements are out of this world, he was virtually unplayable at points last season, as evidenced by his 46% shooting as an NBA center. Still, even with these setbacks, Jason Kidd has built quite the unique team in Milwaukee after his unceremonious exit from the Brooklyn Nets. These may be the types of gambles and roster irregularities needed to 1) get stars to come to Milwaukee and 2) compete against teams that are increasingly conforming to the Warriors-model.
Stats: It’s no secret that Giannis is the straw that stirs the Bucks’ drink, and it was never more prominent than in round 1 of the NBA playoffs against the Toronto Raptors. Giannis averaged a monster 25/10/4 stat line, but beyond that, the team absolutely collapsed without him on the floor. Despite playing for over 40 minutes a game, the Bucks posted a -10.2 net rating in the 45 total minutes he sat in the series, as compared to +0.2 net rating when he played. In other words, it took Giannis having a monster series just to keep them afloat against the Raptors. Of course, this was without Jabari Parker, who missed over 30 games last season and only 1 year into the Thon Maker project. Malcolm Brogdon was a pleasant surprise, winning Rookie of the Year, even if by default. But for a team that finished 13th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency last season, they are going to need some serious player development and a healthy roster to have a chance in the playoffs.
Prediction: 45-37
Miami Heat
Starting lineup: Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Rodney McGruder, James Johnson, Hassan Whiteside
The skinny: The Heat were the tale of two mirror image teams last year, at least in terms of record – 11-30 to start, 30-11 to finish. Surprisingly, a .500 record wasn’t enough to qualify for a playoff spot in the East, but it will definitely be enough for this year. Given the several playoff teams from last season who have gotten much worse (re: Hawks, Pacers, Bulls), their record will probably jump a bit higher. An upgrade at the small forward spot would ensure that. McGruder is not who the Heat want starting as their small forward –that title belongs to the guy whom the Celtics almost gave up four first round picks for: Justise Winslow. Even a league average Justise Winslow would make this a competitive starting 5 squad in the East.
Stats: Winslow finished with the 6th worst RPM among small forwards last season, and an impressively terrible shooting percentage under 40% (20% from 3-point range). There’s nowhere to go but up from there. The real key to the offense is Dragic, who zips around the court until he finds the open man or the rim. He frequents the pick & roll (12th most in the league) and has put up solid numbers (80th percentile in the league, just ahead of Steph Curry). Surprisingly, he does not nearly run the P&R enough with Whiteside, who is only the roll man on 2.6 of his 8.7 attempts, and finished 7th in the league in points per possession (PPP) on such attempts at 1.20. Never underestimate Coach Spo though.
Prediction: 44-38
Charlotte Hornets
Starting lineup: Kemba Walker, Nic Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams, Dwight Howard
The skinny: The news about Batum’s injury is devastating. A healthy Hornets roster is easily a playoff team in the East. Early projections show Batum will miss anywhere between 20 and 35 games. The high side of that range may be too deep a hole for the Hornets to come back from. To avoid the lottery abyss, they must turn to the most recent player to come out of the lottery: Malik Monk. It will be trial by fire for the rookie who will immediately have a significant role in the offense. Kemba Walker will always be the primary offensive weapon, but someone is going to need to score points when he sits. The Dwight Howard acquisition is interesting, but ultimately is not likely to move the needle much. Finally, speaking of the Celtics’ almost-trade for Justise Winslow. That trade was directed to Charlotte, who turned the trade down for Frank Kaminsky! While it might be unfair to shoulder that burden on him, the truth is that is a fact that will follow him throughout his career. He has been vastly underwhelming through 2 seasons in the league and will need to improve this year (especially from the 3-point line) for the Hornets to stay afloat during Batum’s injury.
Stats: In the aggregate, the Hornets were a near-perfect picture of mediocrity last season, finishing 14th in both offensive & defensive efficiency. However if you peel the stats back even one layer, you can easily see the tale of 2 teams. The first team is the one with Kemba Walker on the court, and the second is with him off. When Kemba plays, the offensive rating of the team is 112.5, which would have been 2nd in the league behind the otherworldly Golden State Warriors. When Kemba sits, the offensive rating drops to 103.3, which would have qualified for 25th in the league. The Hornets are hoping Michael Carter-Williams can provide enough playmaking to at least stymie the bleeding for the 8-10 minutes a game Kemba sits. Given his minor knee injury to start the season though, that responsibility may fall back on Malik Monk. In the end, all roads lead back to Batum. If he can come back after 25 games and the Hornets find themselves at something like 10-15, they can easily make a run for one of the last playoff spots in the East.
Prediction: 39-43
Philadelphia 76ers
Starting lineup: Markelle Fultz, JJ Reddick, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid
The skinny: Looks like the Sixers really trust the Process. The terms around injury protections are actually fairly light so long as Embiid doesn’t have a career-ending injury. But even with Embiid’s monster contract, the Sixers still have a well of cap space for next season and beyond, leaving the team with plenty of room to maneuver through trade and free agency. JJ Reddick is on a one-year deal and the rest of the starting lineup is on their rookie deals. As a bit of a tangent, it has been eighteen months since Sam Hinkie was forced out of his position resigned, but his fingerprints are still all over this team. From drafting Embiid & Saric, to signing then-D-League player Robert Covington, to fleecing Sacramento into giving them their 2019 first round pick (the most valuable non-Brooklyn pick in the league), the Sixers are finally beginning to reap the harvest Hinkie sowed. Long live the process! (Or maybe not)
Stats: As has been rehashed by every talking head in sports, Embiid has only played 31 games since being drafted in 2014… but boy, did he look good. The Sixers went 13-18 in games Embiid played. That might not sound too impressive until you realize that the most used lineup Embiid played with was Ersan Ilyasova, TJ McConnell, Robert Covington, and Nick Stauskas – and the Sixers posted a ridiculous +15.1 net rating with that squad. These players will now be replaced with #1 overall picks Fultz & Simmons, established quality veteran JJ Reddick, and the guy who probably should have won Rookie of the Year, Dario Saric. Somehow, throughout researching for the Sixers, I’ve forgotten to mention Jahlil Okafor. Maybe that’s because the Sixers are ready to forget about him too. Brett Brown has publicly talked about finding a new environment for Okafor. Perhaps it will be best for both parties. Last season, Okafor finished dead last in RPM… by a lot. Still, he’s a 21-year-old 7-footer that put up 17.5 points & 7 rebounds as a rookie. There’s still plenty of time to develop him into a starting NBA center, and the market price for him has never been lower than it is now. The Sixers are the hardest team in the East to project in terms of record, and it’s not even close. If Embiid plays the full season, which would be almost three times the number of games he’s played in three seasons, they’d easily make the playoffs. However, going by history, that probably won’t happen. Still, given the state of the bottom half of the East, the edge has to go to Philadelphia, who easily has the most young talent of the remaining teams.
Prediction: 37-45
Brooklyn Nets
Starting lineup: Jeremy Lin, D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, Demarre Carroll, Timofey Mozgov
The skinny: These aren’t your Billy King’s Nets. Ever since GM Sean Marks took over in February, the Nets have made moves that actually seem… competent. After trading away their first-round pick in 5 (!) straight drafts (one to go), Marks made it a priority to focus on player development and culture. His first step was to hiring developing guru Kenny Atkinson, who has been directly attributed by the players themselves to helping create Linsanity in New York and developing DeMarre Carroll from an NBA vagabond to a key 3&D player for a 60-win Hawks team. Both players are on Brooklyn now. The results have yet to bear fruit, mostly due to injuries suffered by Jeremy Lin last season that forced him to miss 46 games, and a cupboard that was left almost completely bare by Billy King. Marks took the only trade chips he had in Brook Lopez, Thaddeus Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, and cap space, and turned them into D’Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, and Timofey Mozgov. Mozgov, while grossly overpaid, is still serviceable as a big man. Allen is a talented, young 7-footer, who is incredibly raw. LeVert has shown some incredible talent after returning from an extensive injury history at Michigan. But the true prize is Russell who, for better or worse, represents the top-3 pick the Nets never had. Russell is 1 of only 4 players in NBA history to have had 2,000 & 500 assists at the age of 20 – the others are LeBron, Kyrie, and Marbury. Trades like this, for a player this young, don’t happen often. Finally, Marks traded for Allen Crabbe, a player he actually signed the previous offseason, before the Blazers matched.
Stats: When it came to wins last season, the Nets were further from the Warriors than any team in the league. But that didn’t stop Kenny Atkinson from trying to emulate the champs. After years of isolation plays, the Nets fully moved to the run-and-gun motion offense. They finished 1st in pace and 4th in 3-point attempts, while the Warriors finished 4th and 5th,respectively, in those categories. The difference, of course, was in the talent (Warriors finished 3rd in 3-point percentage while the Nets finished in 26th). The Nets did not have the personnel to match what the Warriors had last season, but they put the system in place because they knew that is the style they want to play. Marks’ goal this offseason was to acquire players who fit that mold, and he did that with Russell, Carroll, and especially Crabbe. Russell has shown his ability to play off-ball, which helps in an offense with Jeremy Lin running the point. He can also stroke the 3, hitting 35% in each of his first 2 seasons. Crabbe finished 2nd in the league in 3 point-percentage at over 44%, behind only the immortal Kyle Korver. Carroll, despite a down year last season, shot 39% from 3 over the previous two seasons. All of this is to mitigate what happened last season. According to player tracking data, 85% of the Nets 3s were either open or wide open (no defender within four and six feet respectively). That was the 5th highest percentage in the league. Despite that, they made just 34.6% of those types of 3s, which was 26th in the league. Suffice it to say, the Nets were taking the shots they should take, but they didn’t have the caliber of players capable of hitting them. Marks & Co. are hoping that changes soon, and with a roster teeming with young players, they have a long way to go to get there. Fortunately, they play in the East.
Prediction: 35-47
Detroit Pistons
Starting lineup: Reggie Jackson, Avery Bradley, Stanley Johnson, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond
The skinny: The Pistons underwent a partial offseason makeover to their roster. Once Stan Van Gundy saw the writing on the wall with KCP, he took advantage of the Celtics’ salary cap conundrum and made a move for Avery Bradley – a player who is much more polished offensively than KCP, while providing almost all of his defensive capabilities. Unfortunately, the deal only delays this decision for one more offseason, when Bradley becomes a free agent and will most likely look to cash in after years of being vastly underpaid. Stanley Johnson will have to make the leap this year, and will be given every opportunity to do so. Andre Drummond is an interesting case. The rebounding numbers are always there, and his pick & roll chemistry with Reggie Jackson is palpable, but that did not stop the Pistons from shopping the big man this offseason. The unfortunate truth is his limitations at the free throw line, as well as his post moves in general, make him virtually unplayable at the end of games. And if you’re paying a guy $25M a year, you’d probably like to see him on the court at the end of the game.
Stats: The Pistons finished 25th in offensive efficiency last season, and barring significant development from Stanley Johnson (and even factoring in the offensive bump from the Avery Bradley acquisition), that probably won’t change much. The problem partly lies in the pace in which they play – 24th in the league. If you’re going to have a slow-it-down style offense, then you have to make the most of your possessions. Unfortunately, the Pistons finished dead last in true shooting percentage. Defensive efficiency is where Detroit thrives, finishing 11th in the league, between OKC and Boston. If the Pistons can finish around there again, with even a nominal improvement on the offensive end, they could easily be a playoff team in the depleted Eastern Conference.
Prediction: 34-48
Orlando Magic
Starting lineup: Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
The skinny: It’s been 5 years since the Magic traded Dwight Howard to the Lakers and the team has yet to develop an identity since. The exact current return is hard to tell due to subsequent trades made but it essentially boils down to Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier (through a later trade), and most notably, Nikola Vucevic. Vucevic ended up being the best player to come out of that ill-fated trade, but the Magic have never been the same since – peaking to 35 wins 2 seasons ago before dropping to 29 wins last season. The keys to the offense were handed to Payton once Oladipo was traded to the Thunder. The results have been mixed, although generally negative, ever since.
Stats: The Orlando offense regressed last season, dropping from 21st to 29th in the league in offensive efficiency while also dropping on the defensive side from 17th to 24th. As mentioned, this is mostly due to the Oladipo trade. But in fairness to Orlando management, they were expecting some leaps from some combination of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon. Unfortunately, they were 0-for-3 on that count. Payton continues to be the offensively inept, albeit crafty rebounder & passer he has always been. His free throw shooting, while improved, is still only 69%, and his 3-point shooting continues to be on the wrong side of 30%. However, the Magic are a vastly superior team with him on the court than off, with a +9.9 net rating. Evan Fournier has incrementally improved each season, and while his 3-point shooting took a dip last season, he has shot over 37% each of his previous four seasons. Aaron Gordon… well he’s a 21-year-old still trying to figure it out. This is the last season for him to do so, with a team option coming up on his contract next summer.
Prediction: 32-50
New York Knicks
Starting lineup: Frank Ntilikina, Courtney Lee, Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis, Willy Hernangomez
The skinny: While the above lineup does not show the starters as listed on ESPN, this may be the roster the Knicks ultimately go with (due to Ntilikina’s age, Ramon Sessions, Ron Baker, or Jarrett Jack could take his spot to start the season). Regardless of what the starting lineup looks like, the Knicks finally addressed the elephant-sized contract in the room, and dumped Carmelo Anthony for role players. While this move may cost them a couple wins this season, it will provide more minutes for THJ, Courtney Lee, Doug McDermott, and Lance Thomas. Courtney Lee should be viewed strictly as a trade piece at this point, considering his age doesn’t fit the timeline of the team. Unfortunately, his contract does not do the Knicks any favors.
The glimmering, shining hope, as always, is Kristaps Porzingis. As a 21-year-old, Porzingis put up a season of 18 points, 7 boards, 2 blocks, on over 35% 3-point shooting. The Knicks are obviously right in their approach to build around him, but they should be careful not to overburden him this early in his career. Recurring injuries, specifically his Achilles, have been the only area of concern around the big man, and is at least partially due to the heavy minutes he was getting early on last season (approximately 35 minutes per game in the first 32 games of the season before he suffered his Achilles injury – 10th in the league among forwards at the time). The Knicks core is young, with Kristaps at 22, Hernangomez at 23, Ntilikina at 19, and THJ as the elder statesman at 25. They will need time to figure each other out and the identity in which they will play. But in order to do that, their star player needs to be on the court. Without Kristaps, the rebuild looks a lot further away.
Stats: The offense is sure to change this year without Carmelo, but besides the “who,” the “how” will have to change as well. Knicks finished 2nd in the league on percent of points from mid-range and 24th in percent of points from beyond the arc. With the addition of THJ, the continued development of Porzingis, and the possibility of Hernangomez taking (and making) more 3s, those stats should start to change. If that were to happen, the frontcourt of Porzingis and Hernangomez could be a staple of the franchise for years to come. While the stats didn’t reflect positively for them last season (-3.6 points per 100 possessions when the shared the court), it is important to remember they are still young and the Knicks have depth at the position – allowing them to keep their young big men fresh. The frontcourt depth can’t be overstated, especially in the East. Joakim Noah, Kyle O’Quinn, and Hernangomez all finished in the top 12 in the league in terms of rebound rate for players who played at least 1,000 minutes last season. The Knicks should pound the glass, especially on the offensive end, and take advantage of a mostly tiny Eastern Conference.
Porzingis should also benefit from the increase in quality of playmaking from the guard positions. Rose and Porzingis never clicked (as evidenced by their -4.7 net rating per 100 possessions). That should change with Tim Hardaway Jr. and (hopefully) Frank Ntilikina setting up the PnR as the ballhandler. Despite the poor guard play last season, Porzingis still managed 1.05 points per possession (PPP) as the roll man, on 2.9 such possessions per game. That’s not a small sample size either – only 20 players attempted as much in the NBA and Porzingis finished 6thin PPP. To further show how unique “The Unicorn” is, he also finished 12th in the league in PPP on spot up shooting for those who had at least as many such possessions as Porzingis (4.0 per game). The only other player to have accomplished this last season? Brook Lopez. The key difference is Lopez turns 30 this season and has had multiple foot surgeries, while Porzingis is 22 and has so far avoided the knife. Porzingis should continue to improve upon these numbers and be in a league of his own in terms of big man shooting numbers (save, perhaps Karl-Anthony Towns, who, unlike Porzingis, has been nothing short of a liability defensively). In the meantime, there will be a lot of losses on the way.
Prediction: 28-54
Indiana Pacers
Starting lineup: Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner
The skinny: The Pacers were forced into trading their franchise player. What they were not forced into doing was trading him for pennies on the dollar. A return of 2 role players and no draft picks is well below market value for a superstar, but that is what team president Kevin Pritchard received. The team was always going to be worse this year without Paul George, but the hope was that it would be better in the future through draft picks, even with George’s private conversations going public. Instead, the team is filled with secondary and tertiary scorers. This is a team that will be bad, but probably not bad enough in the East to end up with Michael Porter or Marvin Bagley (although with the new lottery reform, who knows). Instead, the future is focused squarely around one person: Myles Turner.
Stats: The on/off numbers for Myles Turner are already impressive and almost matched Paul George’s numbers last year (+8.2 vs +9.3 net ratings). Turner also shot about 35% from 3, over 80% at the free throw line, and averaged over 2 blocks a game. Those kinds of unicorn numbers are doubly impressive when you consider the fact that Turner was not even of legal age to drink alcohol for most of the season. If he continues his trajectory, he will easily enter the conversation of best center in the league – perhaps a big presumption now but also the Pacers best bet given their lack of foundational pieces. Thaddeus Young is a veteran in this league, and a solid player to have next to Myles, but more importantly, to mentor the Pacers first round draft pick, T.J. Leaf. If any player not names Myles Turner or T.J. Leaf have a strong start to the season, look for them to be traded for picks.
Prediction: 25-57
Atlanta Hawks
Starting lineup: Dennis Schröder, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, Ersan Ilyasova, Dewayne Dedmon
The skinny: The current Hawks team barely resembles the finely-tuned 60-win team that swung the ball around enough to earn 4 All-Star spots from their starting lineup. Only 4 players remain from that team and two of them are John Jenkins and Mike Muscala. Don’t count on Budenholzer to call this season a mulligan though. Expect the same Spurs East mentality that has taken root in a real way in Atlanta. This is the year to see if Malcolm Delaney’s game translates to the NBA, after previously earning Finals MVP in the German League. This is the year for Schröder to take him game to the next level. And this is the year for the Hawks to see what they have in their rookie, John Collins, a 6’10 power forward with a 37.5” vertical and a maximum reach of 12’.
Stats: Bazemore and Schröder must play off each other better than they did last season. In a sample size of over 1,500 minutes, they posted a -4.0 net rating per 100 possessions. Delaney actually posted a +1.0 net rating with Bazemore on the court, albeit in significantly fewer minutes. That doesn’t mean the poor rating is on Schröder, but for the Hawks to avoid being a bottom 5 team in the East, he’ll need to perform better when his best players are on the court with him. We’ve already seen what that may look like from the playoffs, where he put up almost 25 points and 8 assists. That may require him to shoot the ball more than team basketball savant Mike Budenholzer would like (Schröder shot over 18 attempts per game in the playoffs), but for an offense that is going to struggle to score, it may be his best option.
Prediction: 22-60
Chicago Bulls
Starting lineup: Kris Dunn, Justin Holiday, Zach LaVine, Bobby Portis, Robin Lopez
The skinny: This team is going to be bad. Very bad. While they didn’t get the worst return for a superstar this offseason (that record is held by the Pacers), that didn’t stop from Bulls fans from being pissed. I mean really, really, really pissed. And while the dysfunction of the GarPax regime has been well-documented, they were at least on the right path in their thinking. While trading Butler and buying out Dwyane were the right moves to make, they were just handled extremely poorly. For one, that is just not enough of a return for Butler, especially with Ainge’s war chest of assets (pre-Kyrie trade). Two, if you’re going to rebuild, commit to the rebuild – don’t give Nikola Mirotic a 2 year, $27M contract! Especially when no one else was competing for his services. Some may say that it’s okay because the 2nd year is a team option. While yes, that is factually correct, that also means Mirotic can veto any trade in the first year of the deal! Why give him that power? Taking on bad contracts (not signing them) in exchange for young players/draft picks, and developing the combination of Dunn & LaVine, should be their only focus now.
Stats: The Bulls 2016-2017 team stats don’t mean much now considering the overhaul of their roster. Instead, the important numbers lie in their foundational pieces. Dunn had a horrific rookie season, finishing with the 5th highest turnover ratio (Harden was 6th but it’s safe to say Harden did many other things well enough to cover for this) and the 5th worst true shooting percentage in the league among qualifying guards. He’s only 23 years old, and while some think that’s a negative against him, he still has time to turn these numbers around, especially in a (supposedly) pace-and-space Hoiberg offense rather than the slow, plodding halfcourt sets Thibs draws up. LaVine could be the real prize here, finishing with about 19 points on nearly 39% 3 point shooting before going down with an ACL injury. As long as it doesn’t affect his awesome dunking ability, look for him to put up some numbers this season in an offense that will assuredly have him at the forefront.
Prediction: 18-64