The mere fact that I’m writing this means the Knicks will not make a trade, will make a bad trade or, most probably, Woj will drop an A(nthony)-bomb and blow this whole thing up.

But screw it, it’s officially deadline day, and less than 12 hours before today’s 3 PM deadline. Anything can happen.

Carmelo Anthony

Honestly who knows what’s in Phil Jackson’s head right now? Certainly not Carmelo Anthony.

We won’t delve too much into the Jackson/Melo drama. Maybe it’s just an obtuse motivation tactic, but for all intents and purposes let’s assume Jackson wants to trade the All-Star forward.

As is well documented, Anthony controls his destiny via the no trade clause in his contract and can veto any deal. That limits potential trade destinations to those of his choosing, if any. At the moment, it seems Anthony would likely approve a trade to the Clippers or Cavaliers, to compete for championship alongside friends Chris Paul and LeBron James, respectively. There are also reports he may accept a trade to Boston as well, although that is less certain.

To be blunt, the chances Carmelo Anthony gets traded today are pretty slim. The teams he would potentially accept trades to don’t have, or won’t offer, the proper assets to return even fifty cents on the dollar.

There are two scenarios where Anthony gets dealt today.

  1. Jackson is so desperate to trade Anthony he settles for a deal far below market value.
  2. The Celtics strike out on both Jimmy Butler and Paul George, and decide to settle on Carmelo.

Scenario one is the more likely, and less desirable of the two outcomes.

Think the rumored deal with the Clippers centered around Austin Rivers, where the Knicks agree to take on the 36-year old Jamal Crawford, who has another year and $17,246,988 guaranteed on his contract. Or in a sick, twisted version of fate the Knicks trade Melo to the Cavs for a deal centered on Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith. Maybe there’s picks involved, maybe not. But if Phil is absolutely determined to run Melo out of town, these trade structures guarantee Anthony is packing his bags by the end of the day.

Scenario two is less likely, but possible.

It’s no secret that Boston’s primary objective is to acquire the 26-year old Paul George, or 27-year old Jimmy Butler. Two All-Star forwards who play both sides of the ball, entering their prime. Everyone in the league is interested, but Boston is one of the few teams both willing and able to make such a deal happen. The price would obviously be high. It’s nearly guaranteed they would have part with at least one Brooklyn Nets pick (this year’s pick swap or next year’s unprotected pick). Even if the price is right, Indiana or Chicago would have to make the difficult decision of parting with their franchise player in the middle of the season.

If both options fall through, Boston may be willing to fall back on a much more affordable option in Carmelo Anthony. The Celtics are only three games behind a Cavaliers team that just lost Kevin Love for the next six weeks. There is an opportunity to steal the top seed in the East and compete with the Cavaliers in the playoffs. Isaiah Thomas has been one of the best players in the NBA this year, but the Celtics still lack a secondary scoring option necessary to beat the Cavaliers in a seven game series. Anthony may provide enough firepower to give them a serious shot, and he comes at a reduced price. Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson and Demetrius Jackson for Anthony may be a reasonable compromise for the Knicks and Celtics at the end of the day.

At this point, it seems more likely than not that Carmelo Anthony is in a Knicks uniform after 3 PM today. Crazier things have happened.

Derrick Rose

Perhaps the Knicks player most likely to get traded at the deadline is Derrick Rose. He becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year and the Knicks do not look motivated to re-sign him. Add in the fact that the Knicks have between a 0% and 4% chance at making the playoffs, depending on which model you look at, and there is no point in keeping Rose.

According to a report by ESPN’s Ian Begley, there have been multiple inquiries about Rose. The only team that has come to light? You guessed it, the Tom Thibodeau run Minnesota Timberwolves.

While there are certainly some signs of favoritism here, a Rubio for Rose swap actually makes sense. The Timberwolves drafted their point guard of the future in last year’s draft in Kris Dunn. Rubio is considered a lower end starting point guard and has 2 years, $28,900,000 remaining on his contract after this year. Swapping him for Rose’s expiring contract clears the way for Dunn’s emergence. Rose is also better equipped to pickup some of the scoring slack left behind with Zach Lavine out for the rest of the season.

From the Knicks’ perspective the deal also makes sense. Of all the problems the Knicks have had this year, scoring isn’t one of them. Rubio’s ability to run the offense and play defense is much more valuable to this team than Rose’s scoring prowess. Most importantly, Rubio replacing Rose forces Kristaps Porzingis into a more pronounced scoring role where he is clearly the 2nd option. The Knicks would also get younger and slightly less injury prone.

Whether the Rubio for Rose swap actually comes to fruition remains to be seen. Regardless, trading Rose should be the Knicks’ number one priority.

Courtney Lee

So far there have been no indications the Knicks are looking to trade the 31-year old sharpshooter. Of all the players the Knicks are willing to trade, Lee is the most likely to bring back a 1st rounder. Of course, the market for shooters was set by the more prolific Lou Williams who went to Houston for a first. However, Lee brings better defense and efficiency to the table than Williams.

Lee could certainly help multiple playoff teams, but the 3 years and $36,761,340 remaining on his contract might scare some teams away from offering a first. Teams like Houston and Washington have essentially taken themselves out of the running by acquiring Williams and Bogdanovic. Look out for the Pacers, Bulls and Pelicans to make a move for a shooting guard at the deadline.

Joakim Noah

Even with the existence of a Good Will for ex-Bulls players out in Minnesota, it seems unlikely anyone would take on Joakim Noah and his contract. In fact, only the man that Phil Jackson refused to interview for the Knicks’ coaching job this summer might remotely entertain the idea of taking in Noah for a split second. Only a last second soft spot from Tom Thibodeau can save the Knicks from that disaster of a contract. Just for the sake of cap analysis…a trade of Rose, Noah and Holiday for Rubio and Pekovic works, Tom.

Expect Noah to remain in New York until there are less years on his contract, or the Knicks include a legitimate asset to unload him.

Brandon Jennings

A watered down version of the Derrick Rose situation. Given Jennings’ low footprint of just $5 million, you’d think he’s the easier of the two to trade, albeit with lesser assets coming back. In an ideal world, the Knicks would be able to squeeze a late first round pick out of a team in the playoffs.

The problem is, the only team desperate enough for a playmaker is the Cavaliers and the soonest available 1st they have is in 2021. For less than half a year of Brandon Jennings, that would be a very good return but I doubt the Cavaliers continue to mortgage their future for him.

Per Ian Begley and @Jsports_ent, there are teams calling about Jennings, it’s just unclear what exactly is being offered. It’s more likely the Knicks will have to settle on second round picks, or a young out of rotation player for Jennings.

If the Knicks end up trading Rose for something other than a point guard, expect the Knicks to keep Jennings on the roster as a stop gap. Otherwise, they should try to get whatever they can.

Kyle O’Quinn

Kyle O’Quinn is one of the NBA’s most undervalued players. Playing 15 minutes per game on a team with the 8th worst record in the league doesn’t help his cause.

We’ve seen it the past two years in New York, and in flashes earlier in Orlando. Most would agree O’Quinn is a good rebounder and solid rim protector. But what goes unnoticed is his passing ability and mid-range jumper.

In the past two years, O’Quinn has shot 43.8% from mid-range, which is good for any player, let alone a big man. In comparison, DeMar DeRozan shot 39.5% from mid-range in the same time period. O’Quinn’s per-36 minute numbers also reveal a well-rounded big man as he is averaging 14.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists per-36 in his time with the Knicks.

According to Frank Isola of the New York Daily News, the Knicks are looking for a first round pick for O’Quinn. Given his talents and steal of a contract, 2 years and $8,343,750 remaining after this year, I wouldn’t take anything less.

If Boston trades Amir Johnson, or finds themselves out of the running for the big names, they could be interested in the versatile O’Quinn.

Mindaugus Kuzminskas

The 27-year old Lithuanian rookie has been a pleasant surprise for the Knicks bench. Kuzminskas has provided shooting and defense from both forward spots when called upon. He has one more year left on his contract at $3,028,410, and becomes a restricted free agent after that.

Per Michael Scotto, the Phoenix Suns have expressed interest in Kuzminskas. It’s unclear what they would give up, but a player such as Tyler Ulis could make sense to offset an impending Rose/Jennings trade.

Justin Holiday

Last but not least is Justin Holiday. Acquired as part of the Derrick Rose trade with Chicago, Holiday has proven to be a reliable 2 or 3 off the bench. He is shooting 35.9% from three and playing solid defense. Currently in the last year of a minimum contract, Holiday presents a cheap option for a team needing depth at shooting guard or small forward.

 

1 Comment

  1. Knicks did nothing at the deadline.

    I’ll take the Nets with no draft picks and good management against the Knicks with picks and PJax fat Twitter fingers.

    But I will say you guys should have definitely gotten at least a 2nd round pick for Jennings. He doesn’t have the seniority to call for a buyout. Surprised the Knicks didn’t make any moves.

Comments are closed.