There are going to be a myriad of rumors at the trade deadline that are simply untrue. Likewise, there will be several legitimate trade discussions which occur, but never come to fruition.
Unfortunately, I don’t have a private line to the red phone in Adrian Wojnarowski’s office, so any rumors out there are fair game. The best we can do is take longstanding rumors of player availability, and apply some logic.
And of course, none of that matters because the trades that aren’t talked about, are the likeliest to happen.
On The Block
Dwight Howard C, Rockets
After a meeting with Daryl Morey and James Harden a week ago, Adrian Wojnarowski reported the Rockets started actively shopping Howard.
With a player option for next year, it sure sounds like Howard will choose to opt-out and test the free agent market yet again. Other teams know they could be trading for a half year rental, and reduce the amount they’re willing to give up to acquire Dwight.
Another problem the Rockets will have is finding a trade partner. There aren’t currently many teams that can get thrust into championship contention by adding Howard. The group of elite teams is tight knit this year, featuring the incumbent Warriors and the challengers, the Spurs, Cavs and Thunder.
Anyone outside of that group would simply be purchasing Howard’s Bird Rights, and slightly better playoff positioning. Even with his Bird Rights, there’s a decent chance he would bolt in the offseason.
Given the circumstances, a first round pick and rotational player might suffice for the 8 time NBA All-Star.
Markieff Morris F, Suns
The deal that sent Marcus Morris to Detroit had a bigger impact than Suns GM Ryan McDonough could have imagined.
The trade sent Markieff into a tirade, as both the twins specifically agreed to a below market contract in order to play with each other.
“Everybody knew how bad I wanted to play with my brother,” Marcus Morris said. “Phoenix knew. For them to trade me without consent or telling or anything like that was kind of like a, I would say slap in the face, because of the contract I took from those guys and the money I took from them. That was kind of a slap in the face.”
Needless to say, the trade created an irreparable breach of trust between Markieff Morris and the Suns management. It seems to be a trend with Phoenix’s front office, as they were forced to deal Goran Dragic at last year’s trade deadline.
Markieff is almost certainly going to find a new home this deadline. The Suns are rumored to be asking for a first round pick and a young player. Given the toxic situation, it seems a bit much. Phoenix might have to come down in asking price to secure a deal.
Al Horford C/Jeff Teague PG/Dennis Schroeder PG, Hawks
There have been rumblings that the Atlanta front office believes the current roster’s ceiling was last year’s 60 win team (which got swept in the Eastern Conference Finals by the Cavaliers). It’s hard to say whether that’s true, or they are just gauging the market value of their veterans.
Dealing Al Horford would make sense if the Hawks don’t believe they can win a championship with this core. Horford will be 30 years old in June, when he would likely demand a maximum contract that would take him to age 35. I’m a big fan of Horford’s game, but see him as more of a $20 million per year guy than a new TV deal max player ($30+ million per year). If the Hawks feel the same, they might as well get what they can from a team like Boston, rather than lose him for nothing.
Teague and Schroeder are fairly interchangeable as far as potential trades. Teague is more polished, but at bit older at 27, while Schroeder is less ready to take a team to the next level, but only 22 years old with growing room. It really depends on the offer the Hawks get for either guy, and if they decide on a particular direction. Either way, the logjam at point guard could force them to move one of their point men at the deadline.
At the end of the day, I find it hard to believe the Hawks will abandon a team coming off a 60-win season, and currently 4th in the Eastern Conference. It will be interesting to see if they indeed decide to blow it up.
Rudy Gay F, Kings
Rudy Gay is the epicenter of trade rumors. Every year, it seems the scoring forward is available on the market. He’s never been a key ingredient for a winning formula, and there are always teams in need of scoring.
The Kings seem eager to switch things up, and Rudy Gay seems willing to oblige. We know the Kings, for now, are committed to Cousins and would rather move a supplementary piece to try and find balance on their roster. Gay is 29 years old and actually signed to a reasonable contract at $27,596,899 over the next two years ($13 mill per).
Right now, the Kings seem to have too high an asking price, and Rudy Gay seems to have too low of a trade market to get any deal done. Nevertheless, its a situation to watch as we near the deadline.
Channing Frye F, Magic
Channing Frye may be the most popular player averaging 5.2 points per game, that I’ve ever seen. Every contender seems to be interested in the stretch power forward.
That popularity should make the Arizona product a near certainty to be dealt by today’s 3PM deadline. He is only contributing 17 minutes per game to a Magic team currently out of the playoffs. Plus his departure means shedding the remaining $15,227,883 over the next 2 years due to the soon to be 33-year old. Perhaps most importantly, some of those 17 minutes would be going to Aaron Gordon
Expect Frye to end up with the Clippers or Cavaliers, based on reports, for what amounts to a salary dump.
Ty Lawson PG, Rockets
The Rockets took a calculated risk when they traded for Ty Lawson. It was akin to the fourth largest chip holder going all in on the final table.
The league called their bluff. The Ty Lawson experiment has so far been a failure. Patrick Beverly has retaken his starting role, sending Lawson back to point guard purgatory. While it’s more of an organizational issue, the Rockets need a restart and perhaps a scapegoat. Lawson might be it.
Despite his lack of playing time, Lawson’s value isn’t horrible. His contract next year is completely non-guaranteed. That gives whichever team lands him the opportunity to evaluate him the rest of this season and have maximum flexibility in the off season.
Timofey Mosgov C, Cavaliers
Speaking of going all-in, the Cavaliers put an even bigger chip stack on the line when dealing two first rounders for Mosgov at last year’s deadline.
For awhile it looked like a worthy wager. After losing Kevin Love in the playoffs, Mosgov stepped up in a big way anchoring the Cav’s paint. The rebounding mismatch created by him and Tristan Thompson proved, at times, overwhelming for the Warriors.
Now the Cavs are faced with a difficult decision. Deal Mosgov to try and bring back some value, or keep him and risk losing him for nothing in the off season. The fact that he is having one of the roughest stretches of his career, might force the Cavaliers to exercise the latter.
Iman Shumpert G/F, Cavaliers
This off season was essentially the LeBron James spending spree. Overspending to keep the Finals team intact, while simultaneously sticking it to owner Dan Gilbert.
One of the consequences was giving Iman Shumpert an inflated contract of 4 years, $40 million. While Shumpert is a solid 3-and-D player, he is not worth that kind of money. The Cavaliers could stand to gain some flexibility, and Shumpert is one of the few tradable players they have. A team that is hungry for a defensive wing could make a move for the 25-year old.
It’s hard to imagine the Cavaliers damaging their chances at a championship this year for the future. If they do deal Shumpert, there will have to be a player coming back who adds value this year.
Trey Burke PG, Jazz
The Jazz are in full pursuit of a point guard at the deadline, which spells trouble for their incumbent.
So far in his career, Burke has been atrocious shooting the basketball. His current career mark of 38.5% from the field, while hucking 12.5 shots per game, is not a good look. However, time is on Burke’s side. He is only 23-years old, and a point guard needy team could make a gamble on his upside.
If the Jazz do find a point guard, expect Burke to either be part of the deal, or moved in a piggyback trade. They seem eager to move on.
Kevin Martin G, Timberwolves
Kevin Martin is a 33-year old solid scoring guard on a bottom dweller team. Any playoff team could use him as a bench scorer. The problem in moving him may end up being the $7,377,500 he is owed next year. If the Timberwolves find a viable trade partner, they should reward the veteran.
Buyout Candidates
Joe Johnson
Johnson is 34 years old and making $24,894,863 in the final year of his contract. Not sure there’s ever been a more untradeable contract at the deadline.
For all the mess that he’s had to deal with, if Johnson wants a buyout, the Nets should concede. He is still a serviceable veteran guard and would be a help to any playoff contender.
David Lee
At this point, David Lee is just a salary matching tool in case the Celtics hit the lottery at the deadline and get one of the stars they’ve been coveting. If they are unable to make a deal, they should allow David Lee to pursue an opportunity for more playing time.