Let’s not pussyfoot around it. This is the matchup that everyone wanted to see. The savvy, still dominant Lebron James in his triumphant return to Cleveland, facing off against the freshly minted MVP, Stephen Curry. It’s a story of young vs old, underdog vs chosen one.
Curry represents the change of playing style in the NBA. His supreme shooting is at the forefront of the three point revolution. For the past decade, basketball statisticians have been asserting that the three point shot is the second most efficient shot on the court (after a dunk or layup). Only recently have NBA analysts started to come around on this. The change in opinion has been influenced by Curry’s ascension. Curry is a true underdog story, from his under recruitment in college to his rise to MVP of the NBA. His humble demeanor and endless bag of tricks have made Curry the most popular and likeable player in the league. Armed with the best shot in the history of the game, and a talented cast of co-stars, Curry looks ready to take the NBA by storm.
On the other end you have a once in a generation player. Lebron James is still the best basketball player on this planet, as has long been the case. Despite this, winning a championship did not come easy for him. James had to go through hell and back to gain respect. When he first went to the Finals with the Cavaliers, he was just a boy. He tried, but failed, to carry one of the weakest casts to NBA glory. Because he was “the chosen one” we expected him to succeed, and shunned him when he failed. The unrelenting comparisons to Jordan, and lack of hardware to show for it, burdened James. He was forced to make a deal with the devil (aka Pat Riley) to get his coveted championship. On his road to glory, he was hated for his disloyalty. But he learned how to win, in spite of it. James returns to Cleveland a man, with the confidence and experience it takes to win. Lebron will do whatever it takes to bring Cleveland the championship he owes it.
The beloved Prince Curry will enter battle against King James. Steph has the heart of America and the better, deeper team. Despite his dearth of running mates, Lebron has the talent and experience to topple the Warriors. Let’s see if the baby faced assassin has the fortitude to steal the throne from the King.
Star Players: Lebron James vs Stephen Curry
The key to this series clearly centers around the two star players, Lebron James and Stephen Curry. Stopping, or rather slowing, either star will be the primary concern of both teams. Both James and Curry impact the game in a multitude of ways, so completely stopping them is unlikely. Even if they are shooting poorly, they can positively impact their teams.
James has literally done it all so far in the playoffs. He currently leads his team in every statistical category besides blocks. He also leads all players in the playoffs in defensive win shares with 1.2. This is by far the most dominant all-around performance by Lebron, and its necessary. The series against Boston was more trouble than it was worth. Kyrie Irving picked up recurring “knee tendinitis” in Game 2, while Kevin Love was forced out of the rest of the 2015 playoffs after dislocating his left shoulder in Game 4. Thus Lebron has had to shoot an uncharacteristically high amount of shots, leading to a low field goal percentage.
He has been particularly poor from downtown, where he is shooting just 17% during the playoffs this year. I’m guessing that James will see his deep ball drop more often in the Finals. He has had plenty of time to rest and practice his shot. Not to mention, I expect him to step up on the big stage. James will need to continue his all-around heroics if the Cavaliers are going to win.
Meanwhile, Curry is playing to his role perfectly. He isn’t putting up the same overall numbers as Lebron because he simply doesn’t have to. His team is better and deeper, so he doesn’t need to expend energy on the glass or orchestrate the entire offense himself. Instead he can concentrate on what he does best – scoring. He is doing so with amazing efficiency.
Curry is shooting at his usual high percentage from three – hitting 43.7% of them in the playoffs so far. What really sticks out is his absurd 81% from the left corner. David Blatt might want to make that a point of emphasis during the team’s film study. If Curry continues to shoot at this rate, he will stretch the Cavs’ defense and open opportunities for his teammates. It will put a tremendous amount of pressure on either Tristan Thompson or Timofey Mosgov in the pick-and-roll. This is where Curry is able to penetrate and create movement in the offense.
The Cavaliers will need to slow Chef Curry if they have any chance of winning the championship. He is currently posting an PER of 26.4 and a playoff-high 3.1 win shares. If Curry continues to play with this efficiency, the Warriors will be in good shape.
Cavaliers X-Factor: J.R. Smith
This was a tough call between Kyrie and J.R. Given the absurdly long amount of rest he’s had – thanks to the imperfect NBA finals schedule – Kyrie should be relatively healthy. Thus I expect Kyrie to perform at a level near what he’s capable.
That leaves J.R. Smith as the biggest enigma from the Cavaliers. I don’t think there’s another player in the league, besides maybe Jamal Crawford, that goes as hot and cold as J.R. One night he can be your best scorer and, on occasion, your best all-around player. The next he can fall in love with that pull-up mid-range jumper and redefine inefficiency.
If they Cavaliers are going to win a championship, they are going to need the good J.R. Smith. He doesn’t have to be on fire every game, but he has to be smart. The Cavs can’t afford a 2/14 shooting night in this series. With Lebron doing most of the heavy lifting, and Kyrie not 100%, they need Smith to be the 2nd or 3rd scorer. And they need him to do it efficiently.
Warriors X-Factor: Draymond Green
Draymond Green has been a key player for the Warriors this far. You can argue he’s been more valuable to them than proclaimed splash brother, Klay Thompson. Green’s ability to affect the game without scoring has been crucial.
His versatility on defense has in turn opened up Golden State’s offense. Green’s ability to guard the 2-5 positions has made him invaluable to Steve Kerr’s creative lineup changes. With Green at the four or five, the Warriors can spread the floor and open up driving lanes to start the offense. Once they get in the paint, the defense is forced to shift, creating open looks for their outside shots.
But it’s not just that Green is versatile on the defensive end, he’s dominant. Green ranks second in playoff defensive win shares to only Lebron James. Most impressive is who Green has done it against. He’s been tasked with guarding nearly every team’s best player at different points. Draymond has defended Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard and James Harden. That’s an quite the list of adversaries.
In the Finals, he’ll be tasked with his toughest cover of all. While I’m sure Kerr will throw an array of defenders at Lebron, it will ultimately be Green guarding the King in crunch time. Putting Iguodala on Harden was smart and effective. However, James’ elite post game would overpower the 207 pound wing. The only player on the Warriors who can defend every part of Lebron’s game is Green. If he can tire out Lebron over the course of the series, and contain him when it matters, the Warriors should emerge champions.
Cavaliers Keys to Victory
The Cavaliers need to slow down Curry if they want to win this series. He is the key cog to their offense and their emotional leader. If they can get to him, it could adversely impact the rest of the team. Realistically, the Warriors have not had to deal with too much adversity. Most of their wins have been blowouts behind big scoring outputs from Curry. If they Cavaliers can force the Warriors to rely on second or third options for a full series, it would gain an advantage, as its not something those players are used to.
To do this, you would ideally put Lebron on Curry. This cannot be done all of the time as Lebron will have to expend so much energy overall. They will obviously have to save this matchup for key stretches and moments. But I think that it could be Lebron James’ defense on Curry that ultimately swings the series. This reminds me alot of when James played Chicago in 2011. Spoelstra ended up playing James primarily on Derrick Rose, who was the league’s MVP that year (sound familar?). When Lebron was covering Rose, he shot a putrid 1-15 from the field over the last two games of the series. David Blatt needs to steal this page from Spoelstra’s playbook in this series.
During the course of the game the Cavaliers have multiple options to throw at Curry. Irving would normally be a good option, but we’re not sure how healthy he is. If Kyrie is feeling good, he has the quickness to guard Curry. Shumpert is a good defender, but I don’t think he’s quite quick enough to stay with Curry. He may be better off guarding Klay Thompson full-time. My favorite option to guard Curry in the interim is actually J.R. Smith. He is quick enough to stay with Curry, and athletic enough to bother his shots. Smith has shown that when he’s locked in, he can actually be a very good defender. This should not (hopefully) be an issue in the NBA Finals.
Clearly on offense the Cavs need to help Lebron out. They actually did a pretty good job of this when Kyrie was out against the Hawks. J.R. Smith stepped up and became a secondary option for James against the Hawks. Tristan Thompson also served as key contributor with big-time offensive rebounds that kept possessions alive. In the end, it may come down to how much Irving can give them offensively. They sorely need him to step up and be a big time scorer this series.
Lebron cannot shoulder the scoring burden, along with all his other responsibilities, as he did against Atlanta. James will create opportunities, and needs his role players to hit shots. But he will also need Irving and Smith to create their own shots with relative efficiency.
Warriors Keys to Victory
The Warriors need to treat this as a battle of attrition. They have more resources and depth compared to the Cavaliers. Steve Kerr must play to his advantages. They need to key in on Lebron and look to tire him out. If they put Draymond Green on him from the beginning, it will begin to wear on James. He is not used to being guarded by a physical presence such as Green full-time. Combine that with the fact that Lebron will be forced to do literally everything for the Cavs. The long-term fatigue could wear on him and give the Warriors the edge.
On offense, they will need Klay Thompson to step up when necessary. Stephen Curry is the best offensive player in the NBA right now. But there are going to be times when the Cavaliers will try and take the ball out of his hands. That’s when Thompson will have to step up. To be honest, I’m not entirely sure that Thompson is ready for this big of a stage. He has done a pretty good job thus far, and delivered when Curry went out with a contusion in Game 5 against the Rockets. However, the NBA Finals is a whole different animal, he’ll have to be ready for the challenge.
Another key to this game will be Andrew Bogut’s defense at the rim. Whether its Lebron or Kyrie, the Cavaliers primary source of offense is attacking the rim. The Warriors will need Bogut to provide proficient rim protection while staying out of foul trouble. If he is able to stymie the Cavaliers’ efficiency near the rim, it will hinder their entire offense. If Bogut gets into foul trouble, it will likely open the floodgates for the Cavaliers offense. The defense centers around Bogut.
Above all the Warriors will need to overcome their lack of experience on such a big stage. They have looked fearless so far, but they have been yet to meet a proper challenge. Despite dropping 2-1 to Memphis, they cruised in the next three games. I’m not sure they trailed the Grizzlies past the 1st quarter of the last three games in that series. Their key players are all relatively young for the NBA Finals. Curry is 27, Thompson is 25, Green is 25 and Barnes is 23. They have played with more confidence than their youth has suggested so far. The Warriors need to play past their years if they want to win a championship.
Prediction: Cleveland in 7
This will be a hard fought series that goes six or seven games. The Warriors are the better team, but the best player will triumph. Lebron has come to another level in terms of leadership and determination. Forget analytics and efficiency, James is playing the best basketball of his career. He is taking over every aspect of the game while still getting his teammates involved. There is no tentativeness or hesitation to his game, as in the past. He knows what needs to be done, and is doing it. It will take every ounce of energy Lebron has, but I think he delivers. I’ll take the Cavaliers in 7.