1. Jahlil Okafor C, Duke
Age 19|H 6-11|WS 7-5|W 270
Okafor has been pegged by many draft experts as the top draft pick, and its easy to see why. The Duke freshman is the most offensively polished big man to come out of college since Tim Duncan. Okafor has a great combination of size (6’11”, 270lbs) and quickness. He is able to operate in both face-up situations and with his back to the basket (like against UConn here). Okafor uses a variety of post moves such as the jump-hook, running hook and drop step to attack the defense. In face up situations, he is able pull up for a bank shot or use his quickness and strength to blow by his defender.
In addition, he is also a very good passer out of the post. Okafor has the vision to hit cutters, or make the first pass that creates ball movement leading to an open shooter. Duke has been able to run their offense through Jahlil because of his vision. Okafor is not a dominant rebounder, but is starting to learn how to use his body to box out and get position. The one part of his game that is flawed is his defense. Despite his 7’5″ wingspan, he has only averaged 1.5 blocks per game. He’s not a natural shot blocker, but shows effort and should improve as he learns the game.
Okafor’s offensive development is unbelievable for this stage in his career. He will be a 20+ per game scorer at the next level, and should develop into a double-double machine. With his talent, size and character, there is no doubt Jahlil Okafor is the top pick in the 2015 draft.
2. Emmanuel Mudiay PG, Guandong (CBA)
Age 19|H 6-5|WS 6-8|W 200
Mudiay might be the best player in this draft, but he is suffering from Dante Exum syndrome. The fact is that playing overseas limits exposure for unproven basketball players. While the CBA is a legitimate league, its hard to gauge the level of competition. Mudiay did have an impressive run of games before going down with an ankle injury, including a triple-double of 22 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds. However, to put things in perspective, we must remember that the defending champions of this league are led by Stephon Marbury (remember him Knicks fans?).
What we do know about Mudiay is that he is an incredible athlete and talent at the point guard position. He is 6’5″, 200 lbs and has explosiveness reminiscent of Russell Westbrook. He has the upside of a poor man’s Oscar Robertson with his size and potential to excel at scoring, rebounding and passing. However, given the uncertainty of playing overseas, there is no way I could put him over Okafor. This is a league where NBA castaways like Yi Jianlian are stars. If he was putting up the same stats against potential NBA players it would be much more impressive. Despite the uncertainty, Mudiay’s potential is too high to pass on with Okafor off the board.
3. Karl Towns Jr. PF/C, Kentucky
Age 19|H 7-0|WS 7-3|W 250
Towns is a notch below Mudiay and Okafor talent wise. He is not as polished as Okafor, or athletic as Mudiay, but he brings versatility and upside to the table. While his post game is not as developed as Okafors’ (who’s is really?), he can score in a myriad of ways. Towns is an above-average post scorer who uses a jump hook along with good touch to score around the basket. At times, he can elevate and finish above other defenders. He also shows a very impressive shooting ability for a seven footer. Towns can shoot mid-range jumpers rather well and has shown the ability to extend his range to the three point line.
At this point, he is already a very good rebounder and rim protector. It’s difficult to see the true impact he’s had statistically given Kentucky’s platoon system limiting his minutes. In the few opportunities he’s gotten, Towns has not disappointed. In just 20.3 minutes, he’s averaged an impressive 6.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. If he were getting starter minutes, he’d be getting more attention from the media. Towns combines a versatile offensive attack with strong rebounding and defensive capabilities. With these skills and his desire to improve, he should be a top 10 NBA center in a few years.
4. Kelly Oubre SF, Kansas
Age 19|H 6-6|WS 7-2|W 205
I’m standing my ground on Oubre. What we saw in the premier high school contests (McDonald’s and Jordan Classic) was a hyper athletic wing with the ability to shoot. I’m not saying he’s the most skilled player, but there is no doubt that Oubre has a very high ceiling. What has happened at Kansas the past few months does not change my stance on that.
Bill Self is a top 5 coach in college basketball – he knows what he’s doing. Yes I understand he is not playing Oubre big minutes. That doesn’t mean he’s not talented enough to play them. It means he’s not mature enough and hasn’t worked hard enough for them. This is one of the perks of spending a year in college, under the tutelage of one of the best coaches in basketball. You get taught lessons that will make you better in the long run. This might be the best thing that can happen for Oubre. Up until now, he was a player who relied entirely on his natural athleticism to succeed. Self will help teach him to improve his skill and play harder than he has had to in the past.
While other mock drafts are taking the benching as an opportunity to knock Oubre, I believe its simply a bump in the road. He still needs time to mature and develop his skills, but the canvas is there. Oubre has the size (6’6″ with a 7’2″ wingspan) and speed to be a top wing player. While inconsistent, he also showed the ability to knock down the three pointer in bunches. Look for Oubre to rise up draft boards as he earns more playing time at Kansas. He should develop into a starting NBA wing for years to come.
5. Stanley Johnson SF, Arizona
Age 18|H 6-8|WS 6-11|W 240
Might as well call him “Rock” Johnson. At 240lbs, Johnson is the second biggest player in these rankings. And he uses every ounce of that weight.
Stanley is a ferocious competitor who attacks the rim with a vengeance. His speed and strength make him virtually unstoppable in transition. With his strength, Johnson is able to absorb contact in traffic and finish. It also comes in handy on the boards. He is a very good rebounder for a wing, working hard on the glass on both sides of the ball. Because of his size, speed and competitiveness Johnson has the potential to be an elite defender. He is always working very hard on the defensive end, never giving up on plays. At the next level, he should be able to guard the two wing spots and possibly handle the 4 in stretches with his strength.
The main thing that worries me is his ability to score in a half court offense. There is no doubt he will get points in transition and hustle plays via back door cuts and offensive boards. However, when the offense is set, I’m concerned about his ability to be a go-to scorer. His perimeter shooting is inconsistent, although he looks improved this season at 42.9%. Johnson may also have difficulties breaking down defenders one-on-one at the next level. Despite these offensive deficiencies, Johnson is an all-around player who has the drive to be great.
6. D’Angelo Russell PG, Ohio State
Age 18|H 6-5|WS 6-8|W 180
There’s no doubt that D’Angelo Russell is a hell of basketball player. The big question is, where does he fit at the next level? Coming into college I thought Russell would primarily be a point guard. However, now that he’s at Ohio State its clear he’s more of a scorer with playmaking abilities. While he certainly has the size of an NBA shooting guard, although his athleticism is just above-average. However, Russell helps offset his lack of elite athleticism with a variety of subtle moves. He uses a series of head fakes, ball fakes and hesitation moves to get where he wants on the court. In addition, Russell has proven to be a very efficient shooter, hitting 43.4% of his attempts from 3PT land.
The best NBA comparison I can come up with for Russell is James Harden. Yeah I get it, seems like kind of a cop out because they’re both lefties. But if you look at the way Russell plays, there are distinct similarities in his game. His main method of breaking down the defense is through a series of herky-jerky movements. Like Harden, an efficient perimeter game is a big part of his attack. The one area he doesn’t match Harden is in getting to the charity stripe. Harden nearly doubled Russell’s trips to the line his freshman year. This is a key part of Harden’s game that has translated well to the next level. Other than that, Russell has actually outproduced Harden so far through is freshman year in less minutes. If you take a look at the statistical comparison, you can see that Russell is on par with Harden’s freshman year while averaging two more assists per game.
I’m not saying Russell will be James Harden. But its proven his style of play can succeed at the next level. Russell should be an impact player in the NBA, with the ability to fulfill different roles.
7. Mario Hezonja SG/SF, FC Barcelona (ACB)
Age 19|H 6-8|WS N/A|W 200
Hezonja is one of the riskier selections in this class. Not only is he an international – albeit playing in one of the better leagues – but he’s an international playing under 15 minutes per game. This makes his evaluation extremely difficult as he has neither the competition or playing time to truly gauge his abilities. While the sample size is limited, Hezonja has shown flashes of impressive athleticism and skill.
Mario reminds me somewhat of Danilo Gallinari, with less height and more athleticism. When he gets to the rack, he is an effective finisher thanks to his athleticism. He is most potent when he gets out in transition. Hezonja will go right at defenders or make the pass to an open teammate. He also has very good shooting mechanics. Hezonja is able to shoot off the dribble, and is an effective catch and shoot player as well.
At this point in the draft, I believe its worth rolling the dice on a boom or bust candidate. Despite his relative unknowns, Hezonja looks has the upside to be a top 5 player in this draft.
8. Justise Winslow SF, Duke
Age 18|H 6-7|WS 6-10|W 230
Winslow is one of the more polished perimeter players in this draft class. He will be able to come in and contribute right away on both sides of the ball. His greatest attribute is also his biggest weakness. While he is one of the more NBA ready players in the lottery, his ceiling is relatively limited. Winslow is putting up very solid production for a Duke team expected to compete for the national championship. As a freshman, his 12.5 PPG and 5 RPG have been good enough for Coach K to keep him in the starting lineup.
Winslow’s defensive skills are his greatest asset. In addition to defending wing players, Winslow can also guard the 4 because of his size and length. Winslow should get minutes in the NBA immediately due to his defensive versatility alone. He has upside to be an elite defender at multiple positions. While not particularly gifted on the offensive end, Winslow makes up for it by working hard on both ends of the floor. He’s very effective in transition, using his size and speed to finish above the rim. Winslow uses his size to work the offensive glass and get second chance points. While his shooting has been sufficient (36.4% 3PT) he can work on improving his consistency.
Justise is one of the safer picks in this draft, in terms of getting productivity at the next level. While his ceiling is limited, his defensive ability and work ethic are established. I’m not sure Winslow will ever be able to create his own shot, but an improvement in his deep ball would go a long way. Look for Winslow to be an Andre Iguodala type – a great defender who is solid at everything else.
9. Willie Cauley-Stein C, Kentucky
Age 21|H 7-0|WS 7-2|W 240
Cauley-Stein is the definition of a one way player. There’s no doubt he’s an athlete, and seven footers don’t grow on trees. Unfortunately, he is solely utilizing his gifts on the defensive side of the ball. If he had consistent offensive skill, Cauley-Stein would be rated higher. However, what Cauely-Stein does bring on the defensive side of the ball is impressive. He is very agile for his size which allows him to guard multiple positions. Calipari showed this off when he had Cauley-Stein guard Providence’s LaDontae “Buckets” Henton. Henton was averaging 24.2 PPG entering the contest, but was held to just 3 points by Willie.
Proving he can dominate the 3-5 defensively has certainly helped Cauley-Stein’s draft stock. With his defensive prowess a near guarantee at the next level, I’d compare him to Tyson Chandler. An athletic seven footer who can guard multiple positions and help on the boards. One thing we have seen from Cauley-Stein this year is some semblance of offensive skill. He’s been working hard the past three years and you can see his development. With the rarity of athletic seven footers in the NBA, I can’t see him going lower than this. He should be a lock as a top 10 defensive center, with the potential to expand his offensive game.
10. Myles Turner PF/C, Texas
Age 18|H 6-11|WS 7-4|W 240
Turner came into this year as the second ranked big man in the 2015 high school class behind Okafor. He’s not nearly as polished, but he has an interesting blend of athleticism and skill. He’s one of the few human beings on this planet who can block a shot on one end, and come down to drain a three on the other.
So far this season, Rick Barnes has brought Turner along very slowly. It wasn’t such a bad idea considering that Turner is a somewhat raw product. However, his improved play has forced Barnes’ hand, earning Tuner a spot in the starting lineup. Hopefully an entry to the starting lineup will lead to an increase in usage from his current 22 minutes per game. Most of his statistical triumphs have been against bottom tier Division I schools. Up to this point he has struggled against quality basketball teams (Iowa, Connecticut, Kentucky, Oklahoma).
When watching Turner play, you can clearly see the potential. He has a 7’4″ wing span which he uses effectively to swat away opposing shots in the paint. Myles has also shown an incredibly impressive shooting touch for his size – knocking down 40% of his 3PT and shooting 88.5% from the line. While his shooting is elite for his size, his interior scoring is below average. He doesn’t have many post moves yet. Most of his points in the paint come from the sheer size difference he has against collegiate big men. This spot seems to be a good equilibrium between his potential and the raw state of his skills development.
11. Kevon Looney PF, UCLA
Age 18|H 6-9|WS 7-3|W 220
Here come the obnoxious Kevin Durant comparisons for any tall, lanky prospects who can shoot. Coming out of high school this was a favorite comparison for the tall and athletic Looney. To be honest, the comparisons aren’t fair to these prospects. Sure they’re meant to be flattering, but there will never be another Slim Reaper.
While he’s not the next KD, Looney is a good player in his own right. As a freshman at UCLA, he is currently averaging a double-double at 12.8 PPG and 10.4 RPG. At 220 lbs, he looks more like a stretch 4 than a prototypical power forward. Despite his diminutive weight, he is averaging double digit rebounds using his athleticism and solid box-out technique. Looney uses his 7’3″ wingspan to disrupt shots and get into passing lanes on the defensive end. If he puts on more weight, he should be able to face off with opposing power forwards.
Looney also has skills on the offensive end. Despite struggling behind the arc this year (17.6% 3PT), he has shown the ability to hit jump shots. He can also shoot off the dribble, but will need to work on his midrange jumper to develop consistency. Looney needs to put on some weight and refine his offensive skillset to be productive at the next level. Having said that, his current production at UCLA is impressive. Freshmen big men do not often average a double-double. Looney should be a productive big man at the next level as he fills out his body and his game.
12. Caris LeVert SG, Michigan
Age 20|H 6-7|WS 7-1|W 200
LeVert reminds me of another Michigan man, and former Knickerbocker, Jamal Crawford. Both are lanky, stoic shooting guards with a knack for scoring the ball. However, while Crawford was a flashy top 50 recruit, LeVert was an under the radar prospect from Ohio. LeVert originally committed to Ohio University to play under head coach Jim Groce. When Groce left for Illinois, Caris took his talents on a short trip north to the University of Michigan.
Despite averaging just 2 points a game his freshman year, LeVert has made great strides the past two years. In his sophomore year, Caris brought his 3PT percentage up 10% to shoot over 40%. The improved efficiency helped him step up as the third leading scorer (12.9 PPG) on a Michigan team featuring Nik Stauskus and Glen Rice Jr. This year, LeVert has made yet another stride forward as the lead man for Michigan.
LeVert has proven he can be the main cog at Michigan, averaging 14.9 PPG to go along with 5.4 RPG and 3.9 APG. His all-around development is impressive. He can be the top scorer, while still being a willing passer and rebounder. LeVert’s weight gain has helped him on the defensive side of the ball. He’s averaging 1.9 steals a contest, but his ability to contain bigger wings is more important. He has been the best defender on Michigan this year, and has the potential to get better. The work ethic LeVert has displayed in his transformation at Michigan should only continue. Expect him to be a starting shooting guard, or valuable sixth man, a few years down the line.
13. Montrezl Harrell PF/C, Louisville
Age 21|H 6-8|WS 7-3|W 240
As far as comparisons go, Harrell reminds me more of Marshawn Lynch than anyone on the basketball court. He is an absolute beast. Montrezl plays with like a man possessed, crashing the boards with a purpose and completing alley-oops with thunderous slams. With his energy and aggressiveness, Harrell can change the momentum of the game in a heart beat.
Now let’s be realistic about his translation to the NBA. Even at power forward he is undersized at 6’8″. Yes his 7’3″ wing span helps offset that, but we saw against Kentucky how superior size can disrupt him. While he has shown the ability to score in half-court sets in college, he doesn’t have much of a post game for the next level yet. Having said that, I can see him as a poor man’s Kenneth Faried. He makes up for his lack of height with strength, energy and wing span. If nothing else, he will help you on defense and run the floor in transition. Harrell may not be able to play starter minutes due to his lack of offensive ability. He can still be a key part of the rotation who can revitalize his team with his abundant energy.
Mark me as an optimistic skeptic of Harrell. I think his upside as a full-time starter is fairly limited. But if the right team drafts him, Harrell’s energy can be a key ingredient to winning.
14. Chris Walker PF, Florida
Age 20|H 6-9|WS 7-1|W 205
NBA front offices might as well cross a big red X through November 2015 if they draft Walker. After being suspended for nearly half of his freshmen year, it seemed 2014 would be the year Walker finally got to show off his game. Then he started the 2014 year with yet another supsension, this time for only 3 games. This suspension thing seems like its becoming a favorite hobby of Walker’s.
But could this year be Return of the Gator for Chris “Sky” Walker? So far this year he’s been solid in limited action. Walker has averaged 6.4 PPG and 4 RPG in the 15.8 MPG he’s been given – which translates to 16 points and 10 rebounds over 40 minutes. That’s not a bad start for a player who still needs to prove himself. As the season wears on – and Florida keeps losing – Walker should get more opportunities to play.
This is a guy who could potentially be a steal for an NBA team. He has immense talent and athleticism. Walker was ranked the 6th overall prospect by Rivals in the 2013 class, his potential is well documented. He reminds me of Amar’e Stoudemire. A player who can ride his athleticism to the NBA, despite his relative lack of basketball IQ or skill. Hopefully, unlike STAT, he can pick up some defensive prowess and offensive skill early in his career. Despite his high boom/bust credentials, Chris Walker has too much potential to drop outside of the lottery.