The NBA draft has to be one of my favorite events in all of sports. Now I agree, the NFL draft has hype and uncertainty. All you have to do is turn on ESPN within 4-6 months of April (soon to be May) and you will see Jon Gruden salivating over basically anyone eligible for the draft. What really gives the NFL draft its biggest advantage, though, is how you can find Hall of Famers in rounds 1-7. I must have heard about Tom Brady being a sixth round pick about a 1,000 times by now. But, its true. The NFL draft now gets three straight days of coverage on ESPN because there’s a chance that your team can draft the next Tom Brady.
Meanwhile, the NBA draft is nearly the opposite. The first overall pick is almost never a bust, save Kwame Brown. And every few years the top pick guarantees you a franchise changing player. There was Tim Duncan who started a dynasty for the previously championshpless Spurs, leading them to win the only four championships in franchise history. Six years later “King” James would turn the Cavaliers from the worst team in the NBA to one of the best. In four years he took them to an NBA championship where they fell to, guess who, Duncan and the Spurs. In 2004, Dwight Howard began his dramatic career in Orlando. While his career has been overshadowed by his recent antics, he was able to almost single-handedly carry the Magic to the finals where they fell to the Lakers. Most recently there were Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin. Both of which were able to turn their teams from perennial losers into playoff contenders. Griffin’s exciting play was able to draw Chris Paul via sign and trade making the Clippers a contender for the first time in recent memory.
That doesn’t mean you can’t find Hall of Famers outside of the number one pick. You most certainly can. But in the NBA draft you have to be more creative. The rest of the draft features an interesting mix of guys. If you are going outside of the top five, chances are you have a glaring question mark. Many forget Kobe Bryant went fairly low at #13, due in large part to his ambiguity as a high school player. Then there’s the guys who never quite lived up to his potential in college (Paul George #10). The power forward who dominated college, but is now considered a tweener (David West #18). That international guy that no one has ever heard of (Dirk Nowitzki #9). The overachiever who couldn’t possibly continue at the next level (David Lee #30). And the small school standout who didn’t play good enough competition (Damian Lillard #6).
Despite the relative certainty of top picks in the NBA, there are still plenty of steals to be had as the first round progresses. Below is my analysis, intended to pick up the pieces dropped by NBA GMs.
1. Ben McLemore – Sacramento Kings SG, 6’5″ 195 lbs
| Season | School | Conf | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| 2012‑13 | Kansas | Big 12 | 37 | 32.2 | 5.4 | 10.8 | 0.495 | 2 | 4.7 | 0.42 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 0.87 | 5.2 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 15.9 |
McLemore was considered to be a top 3 pick by draft pundits, but ended up falling into the Kings laps at #7. Honestly, I think that it should have been between McLemore and Noel at #1, giving the edge to the former. McLemore brings a rare combination of sharpshooting ability and athleticism. I don’t remember a player with that combination entering the league since Ray Allen went #5 in 1996. In his freshman year, McLemore made an impressive 42% of his 3PA compared to Allen’s 40.2%. I’m not saying he’s going to set the all-time three point record, but his game reminds me a lot of Ray’s early days.
His shooting technique and quick release are very impressive for a freshman. He is excellent at moving off the ball, using his quick release to shoot a high percentage coming off screens. McLemore is also a good transition player. He fills lanes well, and uses his athleticism to finish off plays with highlight reel dunks. McLemore showed flashes of the ability to drive at Kansas but will have develop that more in the pros. In addition, he was able to haul in 5.2 RPG as a guard which should translate well into the NBA.
I have McLemore as my #1 overall player for a reason. In a perceived “weak draft” he stands out as a guy who could easily become the Ray Allen of this generation.
2. Dennis Schroeder – Atlanta Hawks PG, 6’2” 168
| Season | Team | Conf | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| 2012‑13 | NY Phantoms | Basketball Bundesliga | 31 | 24.7 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 0.433 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.832 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 11.9 |
Dennis Schroeder is generally an international unknown. He was considered a late first round pick until he solidified his abilities at the Nike Hoops Summit. It goes to show how much one game can really matter for an international player’s draft stock. It gives NBA teams a chance to see them play against top college competition. He ended up going #17 to the Atlanta Hawks, but believe if he played college basketball he would have gone much higher.
Schroeder lives up to the Rajon Rondo comparisions. He has the physical attributes off the bat. Despite being only 6’2″, he has a 6’7.25″ wingspan which allows him to interrupt passing lanes and make passes that would otherwise get deflected. He also has very good quickness which allows him to penetrate off the dribble. His ability to get into the paint opens up the floor for him to find teammates with his impressive passing. On top of it all, Schroeder can actually do something Rondo can’t, shoot the ball. In Germany’s top league last year, he averaged 40% from beyond the arc.
Despite being relatively unknown, I believe Schroeder has the athleticism and skill to be a top point guard in the NBA. It may take a couple of years for him to develop, but at 19 he has experience in Germany’s top league and a very high ceiling. Schroeder will be the steal of the 2013 NBA draft.
3. Nerlens Noel – Philadelphia 76ers C, 6’10” 228
| Season | School | Conf | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| 2012‑13 | Kentucky | SEC | 24 | 31.9 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 0.59 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 0.529 | 9.5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 10.5 |
If Nerlens Noel did not get injured, he would have been the top pick in the 2013 draft. Without the second most impressive flattop in basketball (sorry I give that one to Iman Shumpert) I would have thought Anthony Davis stayed at Kentucky another year. His game is nearly identical. I actually think his defensive disruptiveness matches that of Davis. Had he not torn his ACL 24 games into the season, he would have given Davis’ blocks record a serious look.
Noel was extremely active on the defensive end averaging 4.4 BPG (compared to Davis’ 4.7) and 2.1 SPG (Davis with 1.4). He was also effective on the boards averaging 9.5 RPG, one per game shy of Davis. Where Noel needs to expand his game is offensively. He did average 10.5 PPG, which is not bad for a freshman big. However, most of it was off of dunks set up by teammates. He could also stand to put on a few pounds weighing a paltry 228 for a big man. That didn’t stop Noel from finishing at the rim with nasty dunks.
If this past year’s playoffs taught us anything it was that defensive centers still have a significant value in this league. Just look at the Pacers unexpected run to the Eastern Conference Finals where they took the Heat to seven games behind defensive minded center Roy Hibbert. With Noel’s work ethic there is no doubt in my mind he will make a full recovery from his ACL injury. And when he does he will play with the same defensive veracity he showed at Kentucky.
4. Shabazz Muhammad – Minnesota Timberwolves SG/SF, 6’6″ 225 lbs
| Season | School | Conf | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| 2012‑13 | UCLA | Pac‑12 | 32 | 30.8 | 6.3 | 14.3 | 0.443 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 0.377 | 4 | 5.6 | 0.711 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 17.9 |
It’s funny how much difference a year can make. This time last year, Shabazz Muhammad was considered the first or second best prospect in college basketball, depending on which scout you talked to. An alleged NCAA violation and an age scandal later and he becomes the 14th most sought after prospect by NBA teams. Now these issues shouldn’t be ignored. They represent potential character flaws and a propensity to lie. However, in the NBA, the ability to score is a highly sought after commodity.
Despite being suspended for the beginning of the season, Muhammad was able to recover and put together a pretty good year. Under the shadow of multiple scandals, Shabazz was able to remain undistracted on his way to 17.9 PPG. He showed the ability to score in a multitude of ways. His offensive versatility reminds me somewhat of Carmelo Anthony. He’s not overly quick, but his strength and craftiness allows him to get the rim. Like Anthony, he is also to use his size to score in the post against opposing wings. In addition, Muhammad shot a solid 37.7% clip from three-point range showing he can keep defenders honest.
Muhammad was overshadowed by several scandals, yet had a productive year at UCLA. I believe that he will continue his progression and live up to his potential in the NBA. The Timberwolves took a worthy risk at #14.
5. Anthony Bennett – Cleveland Cavaliers PF, 6’8″ 240 lbs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVCjO-LaZTM
| Season | School | Conf | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| 2012‑13 | UNLV | MWC | 35 | 27.1 | 5.8 | 10.8 | 0.533 | 1 | 2.7 | 0.375 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 0.701 | 8.1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 16.1 |
Let me first start off by saying this, I think that Anthony Bennett was over drafted but that does not mean he will be a bust. He is a very interesting prospect for several reasons. Bennett is one of those guys that you expect to be a top college player who doesn’t translate to the NBA. At 6’8″ he is a little undersized for a traditional 4, especially one that plays around the rim as much as Bennett. However, I believe Bennett’s unique skillset will allow him to be a productive NBA player.
Like I mentioned, Bennett an undersized 6’8″. What I like about him, though, is how he uses his strength and quickness effectively to get good looks. Despite his lack of height, Bennett is a strong 240 lbs allowing him to finish well in traffic. While he likes to post up, Bennett has a versatile offensive game. For a player his size, his ability to create his own shot is rare. With the ball in his hands he can do a myriad of things. He can actually drive fairly well on opposing fours with his combination of quickness and strength. This sets up his pull-up mid-range shot which he can do facing up or with his back to the basket. Bennett is also very good in transition. He fills lanes well and can actually lead a break with his ability to handle. Last but not least, Bennett has shown that he can hit the spot up three very efficiently for a big at 37.5%.
Honestly, I don’t have an NBA comparison for Bennett. He is a really unique player who can score in ways most bigs in the can’t even dream of. Despite being 6’8″, his aggressive nature and versatility will lead to success for Bennett. How much success, I’m not really sure, but he is definitely one of this year’s most interesting prospects.
6. Trey Burke – Utah Jazz PG, 6’0″ 190 lbs
| Season | School | Conf | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| 2012‑13 | Michigan | Big Ten | 39 | 35.3 | 6.6 | 14.4 | 0.463 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 0.384 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 0.801 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 18.6 |
Trey Burke was the most exciting player in college basketball this past year. While he was good his freshman year, Burke made a jump in both production and leadership skills. Burke led the Wolverines on a roller coaster ride of a season. At one point, Michigan was the #1 team in the nation, where they resided for just a week. They were the #5 seed in the Big Ten tournament despite ending the season as the #6 team in the polls. After losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten quarterfinals, they were given a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. In an unpredictable year, Michigan was as up and down as any team.
In the tournament, Burke led the way for Michigan. Burke hit a deep buzzer beater three in the sweet sixteen to send the Wolverines into overtime against favored Kansas. That shot was a defining moment for Burke. He was the only thing that was talked about in the sweet sixteen giving him some nice national exposure. It also gave him and his teammates the confidence to continue their run and make the national championship game. Had Burke not got into early foul trouble (awful refereeing) the 2013 NCAA champions would be Michigan. Go to 4:08 to see the best foul call ever.
In terms of translation into the NBA, Burke reminds me a lot of Kemba Walker two years ago. Both are quick, but undersized guards with generously listed heights. Like Walker, Burke had an emergence in production and leadership ability taking the Wolverines farther than most imagined. Most importantly Burke does whatever is necessary to win. He led the team in points (18.6 PPG) and assists (6.7 APG) while also adding 3.2 RPG and 1.6 SPG. Burke should have a successful NBA career, and going to a small market in desperate need of a leader is the perfect situation.
7. Alex Len – Phoenix Suns C, 7’1″ 255 lbs
| Season | School | Conf | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| 2012‑13 | Maryland | ACC | 38 | 26.4 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 0.534 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.125 | 2.8 | 4 | 0.686 | 7.8 | 1 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 11.9 |
Alex Len is one of those guys who was drafted in the top 5 more for his potential than his actual production in college. There is good reason for it. You can’t find many seven footers with the athleticism and skill set of Alex Len. Up to this point, Len has only shown flashes of what he can do. But, for a team in rebuild mode like the Suns it makes sense to take a shot on a guy like Len, knowing you can afford to wait a couple of years while he develops.
Len is athletic for a seven footer, which allows him to create space while maneuvering in the post. He has shown that he is skilled around the rim, but needs more work to develop his post moves a little more. When he does get to the rim, Len is definitely a strong finisher. One thing that’s impressive is his ability to run the floor. Len showed some impressive mobility for a seven footer by getting out on the break on multiple occasions for Maryland. He has also flashed the ability to hit a mid-range shot off the pick and pop.
While Len is clearly somewhat of a project, I think he will transition nicely into the NBA. He has the size, athleticism and skills to develop into a legitimate center. If he can put all the pieces together, Len has the potential to be a top 5 center.
8. Kentavious-Caldwell Pope – Detroit Pistons SG, 6’5″ 205 lbs
| Season | School | Conf | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| 2012‑13 | Georgia | SEC | 32 | 33.9 | 5.8 | 13.4 | 0.433 | 2.6 | 7 | 0.373 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 0.799 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.5 | 2 | 2.2 | 18.5 |
Kentavious-Caldwell Pope wins the award for most absurdly long name in the draft. I feel like there is an opportunity for an awesome nickname here but can’t decide. ‘KCG’, ‘The Pope’, ‘The Vatican Touch’? Sorry that last one was uncalled for, its not like he’s actually the pope. In all seriousness, KCG is the second best shooter in this draft class. Unlike McLemore, he prefers to shoot off one or two dribbles instead of the catch and shoot off screens. This helped him to create his own shots as the lone star on an underwhelming Georgia team.
While Pope has flashed the ability to drive to the rim it is certainly something he needs to improve upon to keep defenders honest. Besides his ability to shoot, KCG has shown that he is a very willing rebounder. As a shooting guard, he led the Bulldogs in rebounds last year averaging a very impressive 7.1 RPG. Although his shooting percentages were low I credit that more to the lack of a supporting cast at Georgia. He is a very good shooter who is able to create his own shot and has proven to be a top rebounder for a guard.
In the NBA, I can see KCG having a career similar to Landry Fields’ rookie year. His shooting ability will help to spread the floor and he will likely be one of the top rebounding guards.
9. Shane Larkin – Dallas Mavericks PG, 5’11” 176 lbs
| Season | School | Conf | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| 2012‑13 | Miami(FL) | ACC | 36 | 36.4 | 5.1 | 10.6 | 0.479 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 0.406 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 0.777 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 14.5 |
Unfortunately, Larkin broke his ankle in a Mavericks practice. He is expected to be out for 2-3 months and could be back by the start of the season. Given Larkin’s competitive nature I doubt this will have any impact on his rookie year. Despite Larkin’s lack of size at 5’11” he is an electrifying player. He was able to make up for his size with his superior quickness and kept defenders honest with his 40.6% 3PT shooting.
Coming out of college Larkin reminds me a lot of Nate Robinson. Both are very talented but undersized guards who dropped into the mid-teens for multiple reasons. The first is obvious, they’re too short. On top of the lack of height, NBA teams aren’t quite sure if Larkin is going to be a point guard or combo guard at the next level. Below is a breakdown between Larkin and Robinson the year they came out of college.
| Name | School | G | PTS | FG% | 3P% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV |
| Larkin | Miami(FL) | 36 | 14.5 | 0.479 | 0.406 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2 | 0.1 | 2.3 |
| Robinson | Washington | 35 | 16.4 | 0.463 | 0.385 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
Its scary how identical the numbers are. Although Robinson averaged 2 more points per game, Larkin was more efficient from the field. Their rebounds assist and steals per game all match up.
Robinson did have one thing Larkin didn’t have, merited maturity concerns. If Nate had played with the maturity he showed in Chicago for his entire career he could have been a starting point guard in the NBA. Larkin has a better head on his shoulders so he’s off to a better start off the bat. He has the upside to be a starting PG in the NBA. But even if he doesn’t reach that he can fill a role as an energy spark off the bench, similar to Robinson’s career.
10. Tony Mitchell – Detroit Pistions PF, 6’8″ 235
| Season | School | Conf | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| 2011‑12 | North Texas | Sun Belt | 23 | 29.4 | 5.1 | 9 | 0.567 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.439 | 3.7 | 5 | 0.739 | 10.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | 14.7 |
| 2012‑13 | North Texas | Sun Belt | 32 | 32.4 | 4.4 | 9.9 | 0.44 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 0.675 | 8.5 | 0.8 | 1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 13 |
Alright I know what you’re thinking. Why did I choose a video that is clearly designed to show off Mitchell’s skills instead of game footage? One reason is because he played for North Texas so doesn’t really have that much coverage. The real reason is this video shows how much of an athletic freak he really is (plus he does a freaking honey dip). If nothing else, the Pistons will have gotten a future NBA Slam Dunk champion. I mean c’mon, that’s the only reason the Knicks signed James “Flight” White last year (even though he failed miserably).
But seriously, Mitchell has the talent to be a special player in a couple of years. Mitchell is not just athletic, he has world-class athleticism. Although he is just 6’8″, Mitchell has a staggering 7’2.5″ wingspan and 38″ vertical. And its not like he’s a complete project either, Mitchell was productive in college. His freshman year he recorded 14.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 3 BPG. All of that to go with a staggering 43.9% 3PT performance. If he came out last year, Mitchell would have been a lottery pick. Unfortunately for Mitchell, he didn’t. In his sophomore year, Mitchell regressed in nearly every statistical category. Most troubling was his overall FG% dropping from 56.7% to 44%. This was likely a combination of teams catching on, him forcing up shots trying to carry the team and a poor motor.
Mitchell clearly has deficiencies, most notably his lack of motor and decrease of production. If he didn’t you can guarantee he wouldn’t be available for the Pistons in the second round of a “weak” draft. It will take a few years to reach his potential, but if he does, Mitchell will wreak havoc in the NBA.
Lol Ben Mclemore